Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Stats for the 2019 Season. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
No shutout! Woohoo!
On the first 7 drives, the Colts could only collect 9 first downs on 16 series for a 56% DSR, which perfectly describes their effort (wretched). But then that number was given a face-lift by the final garbage drive which saw the Colts add another 7 first downs and a score. However, since the average team only needs about 4 first downs to reach the endzone, it shows that even when being given pity points, Indianapolis struggled.
Their 205 total yards, however, was league worst. In fact, it was the 16th lowest yard total of the 448 offensive games played so far this year.
ESPN’s QBR ranked Jacoby Brissett as the 13th best QB this week . . . 13th!!! This illustrates my problem with proprietary stats like QBR: I can’t open up the hood to see where the measure went wrong, but wow is it wrong.
Well at least the run game . . . oh, that’s right, it sucked too.
Outside of a Jacoby Brissett scramble, the run game notched 39 yards. Unless you can pass for 300 yards, that’s not going to cut it (and we can’t pass for 300 yards).
CONCLUSION AND NEXT MATCH-UP
This outcome was actually not surprising, but that doesn’t really help much. The Saints have a top 10 defense (by DVOA) and the Colts offense has been fading as injuries and just plain poor play has amassed.
I can’t vouch for FO, but I definitely know what I am talking about, so prepare for a heavier run game and less Jacoby than we have seen in the last few games . . . and by that I mean fewer attempts. I don’t actually think you can get fewer yards.