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Projecting Anthony Castonzo’s Next Contract

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Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Background

Anthony Castonzo, the 2011 first round draft pick of the Colts, will be entering his 10th season in 2020 and is playing the best football of his career. Over his 9 years in the NFL, Castonzo has missed 12 games, which shows great longevity that is needed at such a vital position.

In 2019, Castonzo has allowed only 2 sacks, 5 hits and 23 hurries. In 2018, he allowed 2 sacks, 7 hits and 22 hurries. Those are very good numbers and show how consistent he is as a blindside protector.


Comparable Players

The following players are similar to Castonzo in terms of ability, experience and age (to a certain degree).

Taylor Lewan — 5 years, $80M with $50M Guaranteed (Signed in 2018 at Age 27)

Nate Solder — 4 years, $62M with $34.8M Guaranteed (Signed in 2018 at Age 30)

Duane Brown — 3 years, $34.5M with $16M Guaranteed (Signed in 2017 at Age 32)

Joe Staley — 2 years, $28M with $23.25M Guaranteed (Signed in 2019 at Age 35)

Donovan Smith — 3 years, $41.25M with $27M Guaranteed (Signed in 2019 at Age 26)

Just like in real life, we need to adjust for inflation. Over the past few years, the salary cap has increased by approximately 6.2% each year and has stayed in that range. If we account for another 6.2% increase, that means we’ll get a 199.7M salary cap for the 2020 season. When adjusted for inflation, those three players contracts would look like this in 2020 dollars:

Taylor Lewan — 5 years, $90.2M with $56.4M Guaranteed

Nate Solder — 4 years, $69.9M with $39.2M Guaranteed

Duane Brown — 3 years, 41.25M with $19.1M Guaranteed

Joe Staley — 2 years, $29.7M with $24.7M Guaranteed

Donovan Smith — 3 years, $43.8M with $28.7M Guaranteed

The average of those three contracts comes out to:

3 years, $48.5M with $29.7M Guaranteed

or

4 years, $64.7M with $39.5 Guaranteed


Previous Contract

Anthony Castonzo signed a 4 year, $43.812M contract extension with $18M guaranteed in 2015. That contract, if adjusted for inflation, would be worth a lot more as the contract would be a 4 year, $61.1M deal with $25.1M guaranteed.

As mentioned earlier, Castonzo’s play over the past few years has been stellar and has been incredible the past two seasons. He is one of the best 6 or 7 left tackles in the game of football.


Contract Projection

I think Castonzo is going to get a 4 year contract based on his age, level of play and comparable contracts.

If we take into account the following 4 things:

  • Average contract of comparable players
  • Inflation adjusted contract of Castonzo’s expiring contract
  • Expected 6.15% increase (inflation) of the salary cap from year to year
  • Stellar level of play over the past 2-3 years

I expect Castonzo’s contract to look like this:

4 years, $69.2M with $42.25M Guaranteed


Is it Worth It?

Yes.

If Castonzo were to hit the open market, he would easily get that amount from a team. He is worth that contract. That contract figure indicates his current worth.

It would be the second largest deal ever for an offensive tackle and the largest ever for a left tackle. It would also be the second largest deal ever for an offensive linemen, but this shouldn’t be a surprise with the salary cap rising at a consistent rate every year. The Colts are expected to have around 96M in projected cap space going into the 2020 season. A contract like Castonzo’s would be worth 18% of the 96M cap room and 8.6% of the overall cap space. Those numbers show that this contract is extremely affordable for the Colts.

This should be a no-brainer signing.