Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Stats for the 2019 Season. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
How good was the Indianapolis Colts defense against the Carolina Panthers in week 16? Well, when you only give up 6 points, there’s not really much more to say. But, since I’ve got a bunch of graphs, let’s walk through them anyway.
Good things come in 3’s like three & out drives, interceptions and sacks
The Colts made sure that Carolina couldn’t move the ball (11th DSR against, 14th 1st/ply against) and couldn’t score (2nd Adj PPD against). They limited the Panther average play value to near bottom of the league (6th EPA/ply against, 6th wTSR against).
The Colts didn’t give up any first downs via penalty and throttled Panthers third down conversions to just 28.6%.
The Colts D didn’t make it any easier for the Panthers on the ground. Outside of 17 scramble yards, Carolina only totaled 70 yards rushing. With only 4 first downs and 0 TDs, that comes to a 4th worst success rate (wRSR).
CONCLUSION AND NEXT MATCH-UP
After back to back weeks of getting embarrassed, the Colts defense got back on track and just in time, too . . . oh, right.
The players have one more opportunity to impress their coaches and the Jacksonville Jaguars 28th ranked scoring offense (Adj PPD) might just be the ticket.
Jacksonville will look to Nick FolesGardner MinshewNick FolesGardner Minshew <starting quarterback> to try and lift their passing game above the 24th place DVOA ranking that Football Outsiders has assigned them.
Ignoring QB scrambles, the Jaguars have only broken 80 yards rushing, four times this year. So a 28th place run DVOA is probably well deserved. I think that’s generous as I have them 31st by weighted success rate (wRSR).