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Week 13: Colts Offense by the Numbers

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NFL: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Stats for the 2019 Season. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.


Another game. Another 17 points.

Against the Tennessee Titans, the Indianapolis Colts mustered 22 first downs on 32 series, which is a 68.8% Drives Success Rate (DSR) and not very good. The offense had five 3 & Out drives and I’m being generous as that includes a 1 & out and a 2 & out.

The kicking game netted -4 points, so maybe next time just go for it. On the bright side, we only punted 3 times, which if ever there was an argument why counting punts is not a good stat, this game is it.


TEAM TOTALS

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, xOPPD, Strt Fld, EPA/ply, wTSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%
The 24th place points per drive (Adj PPD) agrees with DSR (26th) and per play value (21st EPA/ply). Ironically, play level success was actually above average (wTSR 15th, 1st/ply 10th) which means there were some outlier plays dragging down all the other stats. You know, like turnovers . . . or blocked kicks returned for TDs . . or just blocked kicks . . . or missed kicks . . . Jesus.


PASS TOTALS

Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, wPSR Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, Rtng, 1st/db, ANY/A, NY/A, YPA, Cmp %, aDOT, aYd/cmp, YAC, 20+ #/Yd

For those of you expecting me to rail on Brissett, you are going to be disappointed. He actually wasn’t bad. Don’t get me wrong, interceptions can be game killers and if you don’t make up for it (which he didn’t) then that is a bad game. But outside of those 2 decisions, he did fairly well.

He finished 10th in first downs per dropback (1st/db) and 10th in yardage efficiency (NY/A), both of which are much better than his season average. He did worse in overall value (16th EPA/ply) and success rate (22nd wPSR), but those are heavily weighted by the interceptions and the Travis Ross fumble. Remove those 3 plays and he moves up to 7th in both those stats making him top 10 across the board.

He stretched the field with a better than league average passing depth (14th aDOT). His 6.7 avg. air yards on completed passes (aYd/cmp) was his 2nd longest on the season (DEN 7.5). He had 4 explosive passes which is better than league average and much better than the 3 goose-eggs he has put up earlier this year including in week 12 against the Texans.

He was throwing into tight windows and his completion rate didn’t suffer. He held the ball a long time and took 3 sacks, but his passing efficiency made up for it. Basically all the things I have complained about all year he fixed in this game.

If it wasn’t for the picks I would be shouting his praises, but the picks count, so I’ll just whisper his praises. But don’t let the loss blind you. If he plays like this the rest of the year, that will be a good thing.


RUSH TOTALS

Mouseover definitions: wRSR, Yds, Car, TD, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC
The Tennessee Titans have one of the best rush defenses in the league (4th DVOA) and Frank Reich knows that. With Marlon Mack on the sidelines, this was always going to be a pass heavy game and while the rushing success was good (12th wRSR, 12th 1st/c, 14th EPA/c) its volume was muted to be almost ineffectual, managing just 82 yards of offense.


CONCLUSION AND NEXT MATCH-UP

Kicking and picks killed what was otherwise an efficient offensive game.

If you thought it was hard running against Tennessee, just wait until this Sunday, when the Colts face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their #1 defensive rushing DVOA (2nd wRSR against). Prepare for another Jacoby-heavy week.

The good news is that the Buc’s defense has given up the 9th most points per drive (2.19 Adj PPD), primarily because their pass defense is below average (17th EPA/ply against, 15th wPSR against, 18th 1st/db against, 19th NY/A against).

If Brissett can maintain the aggressiveness he displayed against TEN without the picks, then this should be a game for the offense to rebound.


SEASON TOTALS

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, xOPPD, Strt Fld, EPA/ply, wTSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, wPSR Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, Rtng, 1st/db, ANY/A, NY/A, YPA, Cmp %, aDOT, aYd/cmp, YAC, 20+ #/Yd
Mouseover definitions: wRSR, Yds, Car, TD, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC

TRAILING 5 WEEK TOTALS

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, xOPPD, Strt Fld, EPA/ply, wTSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, wPSR Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, Rtng, 1st/db, ANY/A, NY/A, YPA, Cmp %, aDOT, aYd/cmp, YAC, 20+ #/Yd
Mouseover definitions: wRSR, Yds, Car, TD, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC