FanPost

Way too early Ultimate GM full offseason

Well, the Colts season is finished, and what a year it was. While I never doubted the team could be a playoff contender as long as Andrew Luck was healthy and at the helm, how they got there was certainly the best surprise of the year. A young up-and-coming defense, great offensive line play, and a solid running game leading to a much more balanced offensive attack. None of which I thought would be here this early. So with that in mind, it's time to fart around with Fanspeak and other draft tools to see what kind of silliness we can throw out there to improve the team. From last year, the only hits I had were Nelson, Turay and Cain, but not in the draft positions where Ballard got them (at least not the last two). For the sake of simplicity, no draft day moves were made. Alright, let's begin!

Resign

Matt Slauson (G) - 1 year/$795k (retired after I did simulation)

Mark Glowinski (G) - 2 years/$2.6M

Margus Hunt (DL) - 2 years/$4.1M

Pierre Desir (CB) - 2 years/$5.25M

Clayton Geathers (S) - 3 years/$11M

Dontrelle Inman (WR) - 3 years/$4.75M

Signed

Brandon Graham (EDGE) - 3 years/$38.5M

Grady Jarrett (DL) - 5 years/$75M

Tyrann Mathieu (S) - 3 years/$25.5M

Drafted

R1P26: Montez Sweat (EDGE) - Miss. St.

R2P2: Greedy Williams (CB) - LSU

R2P26: Kelvin Harmon (WR) - NC St.

R3P25: Te'von Coney (LB) - Notre Dame

R4P26: David Edwards (OT) - Wisconsin

R4P33: Stanley Morgan Jr. (WR) - Nebraska

R5P26: Ricky Walker (DL) - Virginia Tech.

R6P25: Bryce Love (RB) - Stanford

R7P26: Cole Tracy (K) - LSU

Analysis

Rather than look at each individual player above in a vacuum, let's instead look at the position groups to see what's changed and how the team could be better because of those changes.

Offense

Quarterback

Andrew Luck is back! Having just completed his statistically best season, the future looks bright, and with the right moves, the Colts are in a Super Bowl window now that could extend for a decade or more. His back up Jacoby Brissett is a capable plug-in should Luck miss a handful of games. I can see both the argument for keeping Brissett and for trading him, and both are definitely valid. For the purpose of this exercise however, we keep him on the roster.

Running Back

I like the stable the Colts have right now. Mack showed he can be a lead back behind this offensive line that excels in the run game. Hines had a great year as that change of pace 3rd down back that Reich found many ways to get in space where he could do the most damage. Wilkins was solid too, but I see him more as quality depth at this point in time. Certainly drafting Love in the 6th round probably raises some eyebrows as many think he is at least day 2 quality, but I think due to his size and durability issues he showed in college, he will fall quite a bit, similar to how Cain fell last year. That being said, he is a true home run hitter, and can do well with a good run-blocking line to get to the second level where he is very hard to catch and bring down. Additionally, he can spell either Mack or Hines. Needs to better show he can contribute in pass catching and pass protection. The former he wasn't asked to do much of in college, but did succeed at when he was in his freshman year. The latter, he will certainly need coaching and improvement in, but is a hard worker and excellent study of the game. What's missing from this group is the goal line back, but I am believing that Ballard trusts Mack or Wilkins in that role with the physical line we will have in front of them.

Wide Receiver

My top area of concern for the team, and one that needs a lot of improvement, was this group. T.Y. Hilton needs little discussion, but it is worth noting he is approaching 30, and was dinged up quite a bit last year. How he played through it all was very impressive. Ryan Grant didn't really impress this year, and was not brought back in this scenario, but mid-year signee Dontrelle Inman was rewarded, and signed to a 3 year deal. Cain looked good in preseason, but suffered a very unfortunate season-ending injury, one that can take more than a year to come back from, so while I have hope for him in year two, I'm looking at him being depth more than a starter at this point. If Rogers and/or Fountain make it back, it'd be as that #6 should they keep that many on the active roster. In our second 2nd round draft pick Kelvin Harmon, you have a true alpha #1 X receiver. This kid has it all - size, speed, strength, control, good hands, catch radius, football IQ, and is an excellent blocker to boot. I'd expect him to contribute immediately. Next up is (second of two) 4th round pick Stanley Morgan Jr. Morgan has a different skill set than either Hilton or Harmon. He's about between them really in terms of size and speed, but excels in route running, good hands and effort. Lacks strength to separate at the line, but has great foot speed and moves to separate off the line, so probably a better Z receiver than X, or off the LOS in 4 wide sets. With these guys, I could see Reich running more 3 WR, 1 TE sets, and getting Hilton in the slot more. Both Harmon and Morgan show high effort and by all accounts are good locker room guys with no red flags.

Tight End

Another area of the team I think is in pretty good shape is the tight end group. Doyle seems like he will make a full recovery, and Ebron showed a lot of upside, but I am more comfortable with him being a red zone target, rather than move the chains target because of his knack for drops, which isn't horrible, but I'd prefer to see a higher catch rate. Allie-Cox is a good inline blocker, and showed nice hands also during the season. I'd probably keep Hewitt that can serve as a fullback as necessary as well as inline tight end over the never very impressing Eric Swoope. During the draft, there were surely some nice prospects like Irv Smith and Noah Fant, but I decided to stand pat on this group.

Offensive Tackle

The anchor of the tackle position is our left tackle Anthony Castonzo. He is far from elite, but at the same time, always more than just serviceable. The addition of Nelson to his interior seems to have also helped him play at a higher level. At the other end of the line, after the Austin Howard experiment really failed, Braden Smith stepped up in a very impressive fashion, especially for a rookie. I think however I'd still like to see him slide inside and strengthen that interior as he'd be a significant upgrade there over Glowinski. Glowinski of course is brought back as solid depth along with Joe Haeg. With the drafting of David Edwards, where we used the first of our two 4th round pciks, the plan would be to install him into the right tackle position. Edwards is a mammoth man at 6' 7" and 320 pounds. Like Nelson, he is an aggressive finisher also, and his main point of excellence is in the run game. That isn't to say he is a liability in the passing game, far from it. He is very adept at guiding his blocks outside around the pocket, something Andrew Luck really likes. Similar to J.J. Watt, Edwards started playing as a tight end, so there is always that extra added element of surprise available too. He will need further coaching on technique, but has the athleticism to be a staple of the line for the foreseeable future. Clark, Smith and Haeg can act as depth here as well.

Guard

What can we say about IHOP? Nelson has been nothing short of game-changing with respect to the production of the offensive line. I think it is more than just his game too. I think it is his energy and effort also that really has sparked the turnaround. The guy is a stud, and we are so lucky to have him. If things go according to my plan above with respect to the right tackle position, Smith moves back inside to upgrade the right guard position. If not, he stays at right tackle and Glowinski will have to suffice. As Kansas City showed, Glowinski was probably the weakest link in the line, even though he did really well over the course of the year. I just don't think the line was tested by the most elite pass rushes in the league to see where they really stood, but Glowinski can hopefully just be excellent depth and not a starter. Similar role for Joe Haeg, who can also slide out to left tackle in a pinch.

Center

Ryan Kelly is a stud. There is no debating that really. Problem has been that he's missed some time and not just once. It is a fine line to say someone is injury prone vs. are they just a bit unlucky? I feel (or maybe just hope) the latter is the case with Kelly, so I am willing to give it one more year to know for sure. Evan Boehm was average, but on the bright side, he is still young and coachable and could improve some. Making the line better to his right can also improve his play. In the draft, I did keep my eyes out for a guard with center skills around the time I took Edwards, but didn't see such value that made me think the pick would result in a plus over either Glowinski or Boehm. So to a degree, we could live or die with Ryan Kelly's health.

Defense

Defensive Tackle

Al Woods finished the year on IR, and as a free agent, we let him walk in our mock. We bring back one of our two most productive interior lineman in Margus Hunt though and re-join him with Denico Autry, who was a very serviceable signing from last offseason. Both guys performed well this year, but neither was a high-impact player, and to get to the next level we're going to need more of that in this unit from either FA or the draft. Because of our draft position and the thinness of the interior DL position in this draft class, we assume we won't find a day 1 starter here, so we open the purse strings and add a big piece in Grady Jarrett. Autry and Hunt really helped us limit the run this year, but weren't quite as effective in the pass rush. A young Jarrett is also a stud in the run game, but elevates the pass rush from the interior significantly, and just by doing that, it is likely Autry and Hunt will improve in this area as well depending on which one lines up next to him. We keep Ridgeway and Stewart around for depth of course and hope the young guys can continue to grow. In the 5th round of the draft, we also pick up Ricky Walker from Virginia. Walker brings to the table a very balanced skill set in terms of run vs. pass, and excels from both a technical aspect and football IQ one as well. He lacks the size you'd like to see here (though 6' 2", 305 is still a big man) but plays with fully explosive and useable strength, which paired with his technique still makes him very effective.

Defensive End

While the line did well against the rush this year both from the interior and setting the edge, the pass rush was no where near as good as it needs to be for the Colts to reach the next level. Adding Jarrett inside will help collapse the pocket on less mobile QBs, but help is still needed on the edge as well. To remedy this, Ballard once again dips into the cap space and works out a 3 year deal for Brandon Graham. Graham's overall strength probably leans a bit more towards the run than pass, but even so, he is a significant upgrade that will allow a lot of flexibility to experiment with the rest of the guys. Both Lewis and Turay showed promise last year, and Graham may block their growth a bit, but we are in a good window here and their depth will no doubt be needed. Add to that Lewis, who I thought showed better of the two on the pass rush, was hurt a lot last year, and Graham makes a lot of sense. Sheard also had a decent year, and I would expect would still man the other side, but 1st round draft pick Montez Sweat will certainly be a guy to look at be his replacement in the not too distant future, possibly even taking over on passing downs sometime in his rookie year. Sweat is a super explosive player with excellent length and wingspan to snag runners, even when engaged. He plays best with one hand in the dirt, and is an overall very good fit with our 4-3 base.

Linebacker

Easily Ballard's biggest payoff from the draft last year was Darius Leonard. The now official DROY, Leonard simply took the league by storm. Second year linebacker Anthony Walker was dependable, but nothing spectacular. Outside of those two however, the production dropped off considerably, so this was an area that certainly needs more talent infusion. I don't think we knocked it out of the park here either, because there were no signings from FA that made sense. However, 3rd round pick Te'von Coney can see what he brings to the table in addition to the growth of Zaire Franklin and Matthew Adams. Coney's best strength is against the run, and is likely a rotational player. Sadly, this draft was not laden with quality linebackers, either inside or outside, that a real gem would be waiting in the 3rd round, and FA didn't provide any upgrades that made sense financially, given the other areas of need that were to be addressed. While Leonard can carry this group very far, I still consider it the weakest area of the team going into the 2019 campaign.

Cornerback

The last couple of years have seen an uptick in cornerback play, first with Rashaan Melvin and Pierre Desir last year, and then with Desir again this year along with Kenny Moore II. Quincy Wilson also has shown some marked improvement in his game, but still needs to show a bit more consistency. The three of them however present a formidable Nickel package, and are quite adept in our Tampa 2 system. In an effort to bring more skill and depth to the roster, we take Greedy Williams out of LSU with the first of our two 2nd round picks. He has great size, speed and a total ball-hawk. Equally important I think is that he allows for the Colts to play just a bit more man coverage, which can really open up the pass rush. He is adaptable at both man and zone coverages, and is just athletically very gifted, with amazing ball skills. Of concern with him throughout his college career is effort, so I am gambling a bit here that he can really respond well to good coaching and a winning environment.

Safety

Safety position for the Colts can be a bit maddening. Malik Hooker is getting all the way back to being healthy and showed improvement along the way. I am still looking for more from him though. Clayton Geathers, as intense as he is, is just hurt too often for my liking, so I'd really like to see him serve as a back-up or depth option more than a starter. For that reason, we go out into FA and pick up our last piece that will likely be a much more consistent and solid contributor in Tyrann Mathieu. At only 26 years old, Mathieu has plenty in the tank. His versatility will come in very handy as well. In dime packages, he can move to dime linebacker and have Geathers take over SS. He is equally adept playing the nickel CB position, which would allow the team to maximize the talent on the field in various downs and distances.

Special Teams

Kicker

What can you say about Adam Vinatieri? If he wants back, he likely comes back. That being said, I couldn't actually get the draft system to work out a reasonable 1 year deal with him. Not sure why, but for this simulation at least, he does not decide to return, so we spend our last pick in the draft on a rookie kicker rather than hit FA looking for one. Cole Tracy was very accurate inside 50 yards during his college career, in fact, only one of his misses in the last season came inside the 50. That 50 range though is money, so he will need some coaching possibly. He has the leg strength though, and is very mentally tough.

Punter

Rigberto Sanchez returns to his very solid form as the Colts punter. Nothing here to see folks.

Conclusion

In the draft as well as free agency, you are not going to hit on everything obviously, but knowing your scheme and locker room well enough to plug-in players that fit both will give them the best chance to succeed as a whole unit. I am not sure there is as sure a bet in this draft class as Quenton Nelson was in the last one, but I have very high hopes for Kelvin Harmon. As for the free agent class, all three should be immediate impact players, and provide the Colts defense with the missing pieces to get this team to the next level. Only Jarrett had a real long term commitment from us, and I think it will be a bargain all too soon. For the future, we aren't trying to get into cap space hell, so that we can re-sign our quality young players. At the same time, the terms on these contracts and the age of the players involved set the Colts up for success immediately and well into the future. The Super Bowl window is now open. We need to make the most of it.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.