Going into our Week 4 match-up versus the Raiders, many people seem to be expecting different results. However, I wanted to throw out some game predictions that might just happen. The order of the five following guesses go from most sensible to almost crazy.
Let us begin.
Jacoby Brissett will pass for 3 TDs and no INTs
This prognostic is based on a simple factors: We are most likely going to carve the Raiders D. They’ve been all around pretty bad. Their run defense is suspect, their corners struggle to cover, they have no real star power and they aren’t super well coached.
Stack on that the fact that Brissett is going to have all day to throw (Raiders have 5.0 sacks on the season), and that Reich is probably going to have a couple Aces up his sleeve, and there’s no reason why Brissett shouldn’t dominate in this game. Especially if they follow a game plan similar to that of last week and Reich keeps calling plays like these.
Carr will pass for 280+ yards and have a completion rate of 80% plus
Carr is passing for an average of 233 yards this season with a completion percentage of 73.5%. Last week against the 10th rank Vikings defense, Carr passed for 242 yards with at a 79.5% completion rate.
Considering that the Colts allow 244.3 YPG, a completion percentage of 76.0 and a QB Rating of 115.4 (compared to the Vikings allowing 225.7 YPG, 71.9% and 96.2), it can be expected that Carr would play slightly better.
The only counter I see to this argument is that Carr will be forced to move away from his high-completion low-upside throws if the Colts begin to pummel the Raiders.
For those visual learners out there, this is what Carr’s passing attempts looked like versus the Vikings last week.
Marlon Mack will rush for 120+ yards and Josh Jacobs for 100+ yards and a TD.
This game features two pretty bad running defenses. The Colts interior DL is the team’s weakest link (giving up 5.3 YPC!) and the Raiders, while not good by any scope of the imagination, is a tad bit better (4.1 YPC).
Both offenses feature two young and talented backs. Mack is averaging 99.6 YPG on 61 carries and 4.9 YPC while Josh Jacobs is averaging 76 YPG on 45 carries and 5.1 YPC.
I presume both RBs will put up great stats in this upcoming game, the only questions I have with regards to this projection is a) Jacobs has not rushed for more than 100 yards (85, 99, 44) and b) I don’t know to what extent the Raiders will move away from the running game if they fall behind.
Both Ebron and Doyle hit paydirt
Ebron already has a TD on the season (should be two considering that drop Week 1), and Doyle has yet to score 6 for the Colts. I see that changing this Sunday. With Hilton out, I can see Reich and Brissett turning towards their most experienced offensive weapons: the flashy touchdown machine and ol’ Reliable.
Look for Reich to game plan around these two pieces and for Brissett to look their way often. I would not be surprised to see them both go for more than 50 yards along with a TD for each.
Turay and Houston combine for 3.0 sacks
This one, you might say, is just a bit of a hunch. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Turay so far. His speed, bend and explosiveness place him near the QB on almost every play.
Through 3 games, both Turay and Houston have a combined 2.0 sacks. While some blame should rightfully be places on the DEs, it must be noted that the Colts zone scheme does the pass-rushers no favors.
The Colts have only 8.0 sacks this season (with a few more being turned back due to penalties), and I think a pairing versus an average and injured OL is just what the doctor ordered.
Bonus: Parris Campbell will have more than 100+ yards
Hilton had 25 targets across the past 3 games (with Brissett throwing the ball just 92 times). That means that, assuming that T.Y. is out versus the Raiders, 27% of the targets are up for grabs.
Like I said above, I think a nice chunk of those will go to the tight ends, but keep an eye on Cain and Campbell. They will probably be on the field for a similar amount of time, but Campbell’s blazing speed allows him to capitalize more on those targets.
This is my “crazy” prediction, as it seems completely irrational to expect a guy who has 5 catches for 37 yards across 3 weeks to achieve this feat.
But I mean, where’s the fun in sure-fire picks?
Alvaro’s Game Prediction:
Colts win: 30 (3 passing TD and 3 FG) to 17.