clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Week 17: Colts Offense by the Numbers

New, comments

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

NFL: DEC 29 Colts at Jaguars Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Stats for the 2019 Season. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.


The season is over but let’s take one last look at the Indianapolis Colts offense from week 17 as they got blown out by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The first half was looking good with 13 first downs and an 81.3% Drive Success Rate (DSR) that led to 20 points.

Then the 2nd half saw only 4 first downs on 5 drives for a total of 46 offensive yards and 0 points with 2 QB fumbles.


TEAM TOTALS

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, xOPPD, Strt Fld, EPA/ply, wTSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%

The opponent fumble return TD reduces the offensive net points to 1.3 per drive, which was 23rd on the week (Adj PPD). That was driven by a negative EPA/ply (19th) and an inability to get first downs (19th 1st/ply, 19th DSR). Third down conversion rate was again poor this week.


PASS TOTALS

Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, wPSR Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, Rtng, 1st/db, ANY/A, NY/A, YPA, Cmp %, aDOT, aYd/cmp, YAC, 20+ #/Yd

This was Jacoby Brissett’s worst performance of the year. He started the game looking great but the wheels came off and he ended up bad in all measures. And for the 8th time this season he finished with fewer than 200 net yards. No team can survive with that little production.

A drop-off in the passing game was expected this year, but I’m not sure most fans were prepared for how drastic. By DVOA, the Colts pass game finished 25th.

Compared against 2017, Brissett was better in the top 4 stats that matter. Although he still ended the year significantly below average, ranking below 20th in 3 of the 4 measures.

Jacoby Brissett Season Comparison

2017 2019
2017 2019
Metric Value Rank Value Rank
EPA per Dropback -0.08 26 0.01 19
weigthed Passing Success Rate 39.0% 27 41.8% 21
Net Yards per dropback 5.4 29 5.9 23
1st downs dropback rate 27.6% 31 30.2% 23

Here are some other metrics showing some improvement over 2017:

Other Stat Comparison

2017 2019
2017 2019
Metric Value Rank Value Rank
TD Rate 2.5% 30 3.8% 23
INT Rate 1.4% 4 1.3% 7
TD-Int Diff Rate 1.2% 22 2.5% 13
Cmp % 58.8% 30 60.8% 27
Cmp % Over Expected -6.6% 31 -3.9% 27
Sack Rate 9.7% 34 5.7% 10
Avg Depth of Target 7.49 30 7.91 19
Avg Air Yards per Comp. 5.49 27 5.32 30

RUSH TOTALS

Mouseover definitions: wRSR, Yds, Car, TD, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC

The rushing game was actually good. The Colts had the best standard rushing success rate of any team, although when weighting that by situation and outcome that falls to 13th. Still, the 5th best EPA per carry and 9th best YPC is a result I will take any week.

2 TDs and 9 first downs shows the Colts were moving the chains well on the ground. It is unfortunate that late game script limited the ability to leverage that.

On the season, the run game was the best the Colts have seen in a long time, finishing 8th in DVOA for the year. That’s better than 13th place for 2018 and far better than the 24th place 2017 finish. Frank Reich is trying to establish a run game in Indy and he is doing a good job of it.


CONCLUSION

This game was a microcosm of the whole season’s offense: good running, poor passing.

The Colts offense started out 2019 on fire. Their 5-2 start and top 10 DVOA rating was primarily due to a rushing game that was near the top of the league (9th in EPA per carry, 3rd in rushing success rate). And while Brissett wasn’t nearly as good as most fans and media portrayed him to be, he was far better than his 2017 outing.

But after that, Brissett went from a middle-tier QB to bottom tier and the run game, while still very good, couldn’t make up the difference.

2019 Colts Offense

Metric Weeks 1 - 8 Rank Weeks 9 - 17 Rank
Metric Weeks 1 - 8 Rank Weeks 9 - 17 Rank
Passing Yards per game (incl sck, QB scrm) 232.1 21 188.3 30
Rushing Yards (excl QB scrm) 114.0 9 124.7 4
Total 346.1 19 313.0 26
Pass EPA per dropback 0.15 13 -0.16 31
Rush EPA per carry -0.03 9 0.13 2
Total (per play) 0.05 10 -0.02 18
Pass Success Rate 46.2% 13 37.3% 29
Rush Success Rate 42.1% 3 41.0% 8
Total 39.6% 14 37.3% 17

The Colts offense finished 2019 with a 19th place ranking in DVOA (25th pass, 8th rush).


SEASON TOTALS

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, xOPPD, Strt Fld, EPA/ply, wTSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, wPSR Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, Rtng, 1st/db, ANY/A, NY/A, YPA, Cmp %, aDOT, aYd/cmp, YAC, 20+ #/Yd
Mouseover definitions: wRSR, Yds, Car, TD, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC