LSU QB Joe Burrow just completed a college football season for the ages, capping off an amazing 65 touchdown year with a spectacular National Championship win on Monday.
There’s no denying that the star-signal caller will be the 1st overall selection in this year’s draft, presumably by the team currently picking in that spot - the Cincinnati Bengals. With his innate accuracy, calm demeanor, and superb improvisational abilities, Burrow is about as elite as a passing prospect can get, which means he’ll likely be selected as such.
In the 0.0001% chance the Bengals either don’t like him or prefer to collect assets, however, a team like the Colts would be a prime candidate to jump up to that number one spot.
Looking at past QB trade-ups, let’s see just how much it would take for Indy to be able to make that aforementioned deal.
Heisman Trophy ✔️— NFL Draft (@NFLDraft) January 14, 2020
National championship ✔️
Most pass TDs in a single season in FBS history ✔️
What a way to go out, Joe Burrow. pic.twitter.com/IKqqud0TFb
The RG3 Trade
Going back a bit here, the RG3 trade is possibly the most well-known draft trade of the century.
Moving up 4 spots to grab Griffin - the consensus 2nd best QB in the class - Washington gave up the 6th and 36th picks, as well as 2 future 1st round picks, for the 2nd overall selection.
The price was considered absurdly high at the time, but it became a measuring stick for every high profile trade-up since.
Even though Griffin was viewed as a superb prospect, Burrow is likely to grade higher for NFL teams AND the Colts are 12 spots back as opposed to 4. Therefore it seems pretty obvious that lndy would need to give up more than Washington to have a chance at the prized passer.
The Goff Trade
The last trade for the 1st overall selection, the Rams gave up the 15th, 43rd, 45th and 76th picks, as well as future 1st and 3rd round selections, for a crack at the top spot. On paper, this would look relatively equal to what Indy would have to give up, given the similar magnitude of the two trades. Burrow, however, is a far superior prospect to Goff and will command much more on that alone. The team drafting in the top spot (Cincinnati) also has a hole at the QB position, unlike Tennessee in 2015, which will further drive up the price.
The Darnold Trade
This is one that Colts fans should be very familiar with. The most recent high-profile QB trade to take place, New York’s decision to acquire the USC passer may be the most similar and therefore most comparable situation to Indy’s current circumstances. Trading up 3 spots, the Jets gave up the 6th, 37th, and 49th picks, as well as a 2019 2nd rounder, for the 3rd spot. If we look at this value and project a 12 pick jump as opposed to a 3, it’s a relatively realistic scenario.
What a Colts trade might look like
Again, the chances of this coming to fruition are literally in the negative percentile. In a hypothetical trade-up though, this is an expected amount for what Burrow and the 1st overall pick would cost.
- 13th pick
- 34th pick
- 44th pick
- 75th pick
- 2021 1st Round pick
- 2021 2nd Round pick
- 2022 1st Round pick
Do you think a steep price like this is worth the trade-up?
Give your take in the comment section below.