This is not gambling advice. Gamble at your own risk.
Every week during the NFL season, I put out an article titled just as this one, Jared Bets the NFL. To be up front about this, I don’t bet every game, every outcome or even every week. I prefer to bet the underdog, take a shot on a parlay and can absolutely enjoy a week of football where the only game I watch is the Colts and I don’t have a dog in any fight.
This is a really good week to just enjoy the Colts versus a spirited cupcake in Cinci-nasty and not throw money on an absolute dumpster fire of a slate of games because frankly, talking about these games evokes the smell of burning trash. It could just be my neighbors, though.
Check this out. For the 2020 season, I am 48/76 or correct about 63% of the time with the spread betting NFL games. Last week was not pretty, but if you look closely, I bet straight up very well.
There is no Thursday Night Football this week. There are two Monday Night Football games this week starting at 5pm EST.
On SUNDAY (HOME team in caps, pick in bold) all lines per DraftsKings (please pay me):
Ravens -7.5 vs. EAGLES +7.5
This game will be lopsided as frankly, the Eagles do not have the playmakers to score like the Ravens do.
Bengals +7.5 vs. COLTS -7.5
If there exists a week of football where the Colts could put it all together, it’s this week. The Bengals were just held to 3 points last week, they’re bottom of the NFL in every important offensive and defensive category, but hey. This is why they play every game.
Part of me wants to take the Browns and the points, but I actually think picking the Steelers to win straight up is correct if you can’t bet the Browns and keep a straight face.
Broncos +9.5 vs. PATRIOTS -9.5
I feel like I’ve been watching Drew Lock throw via grainy video on Twitter for months. Maybe he plays Sunday and keeps this game interesting.
The Titans are big, dumb animals and the Texans are a wounded animal. Someone’s eating and the other is dinner.
Bears +1 vs. PANTHERS -1
I have to keep my friends that are Bears fans happy by occasionally saying nice things about them, like that they’ll get a big road win here.
The Falcons are hapless and hopeless. Frankly, the Vikings aren’t much better. As a result, it’s a goofy tie or 1-point game.
Interesting that this feels like a trap. I’ll take the Lions straight up.
Washington +2.5 vs. GIANTS -2.5
This spread is obnoxious and I’ll take the Giants by a touchdown.
I suppose there’s this inkling that the Dolphins aren’t that bad and they’ll surely blow out the Jets, but these aren’t great teams. I’ll take Miami straight up.
Packers -1 vs. BUCCANEERS +1
The Aaron Rodger’s Revenge Tour makes a stop in sunny Tampa Bay. Good game, though!
The 49ers have a lot of injuries and as a result, the Rams win a tight contest.
ON MONDAY NIGHT STARTING AT 5pm EST:
I’m still in shock that the Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. Patrick Mahomes is the kind of quarterback to reign it in and put a whooping on the Bills on the road.
Cardinals -1.5 vs. COWBOYS +1.5
I hate the idea of betting under these circumstances. I don’t even like the Cowboys (although I do love Dallas as a city), and I’d hope they play spirited football for their fallen comrade in Dak Prescott. They won’t, though.
Again, this isn’t gambling advice. I’m not your bookie. The best idea here is to write down each game and spread. Write down your expected outcome. Rank the games by the result you feel most strongly about, then take the 3-5 games you’re most confident about the outcome and bet those outcomes. It’s not always wise to bet on your team or the game they’re playing.
Hit me up on Twitter @likelyalien.