Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Let’s look at the Joe Burrow.
In a word . . . pretty not good. To be fair, if you ignore an abysmal week 5, then the Joe Burrow rises up to “below average”.
On the year, Tyler Boyd is his go-to guy, but that wasn’t the case last week . . . when I picked Boyd for daily fantasy.
The Joe Burrow’s depth of target is higher than average but he doesn’t convert that into above average value.
His completed air yards per attempt is low as well as receiver yac.
The Joe Burrow doesn’t throw many TDs and when he does they are short . . . just like another QB I know.
He doesn’t hold it a long time, but the Joe Burrow is a sack factory.
His accuracy isn’t bad as long as it is within 20 yards.
10 - 20 yards downfield is the Joe Burrow’s bread and butter (white bread with margarine).
Dropbacks: Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Yards After Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.