This is not gambling advice. Gamble at your own risk.
Every week during the NFL season, I put out a column that wholeheartedly intends to be a “WARNING: DO NOT GAMBLE” piece. However, because I try to take injuries, late breaking news and the line into consideration, we end up being right a little more often. When I started writing about gambling, someone told me if we’re right more than 55% of the time, we’re a professional, baby.
That said, heading into Week 7, I was 57/90. This means I write an article before the games are played, pick not only the winner but utilize the spread and am right about 63.3% of the time. Last week (Week 7), I was 8/14 or 57% correct, bringing our current record to 65/104 and 62.5% correct so far this year. Not bad! Let’s get to the games!
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (HOME TEAM IN CAPS. Pick in bold.)
Falcons +1.5 vs. PANTHERS -1.5
If I read this right, the Panthers get CMC back tonight. Normally, I’d say it’s a wrap for the Falcons if that’s the case, because that Atlanta defense is all-time terrible. However, this spread bothers me. Falcons get a big win (for them).
It has to be coaching and the fact that the Vikings (a playoff team), traded their downfield playmaker in his prime. They’ll lose this game and it’ll be because the Vikings don’t have the deep ball. It’s all underneath stuff until Cousins shows me otherwise.
This is how weak the Titans are. They get a nice road win this week after the letdown last week, but not without a little stress and a field goal game to boot.
I’m excited for Tua’s first start Sunday and unfortunately for him, the Rams secondary has been balling out of control. The Rams win this by a bunch, but I bet Tua gives us something to talk about.
I typically balk at big spreads (and pick the winner straight up because I don’t like losing money), but this game was over when it was scheduled. This game will be 28-0 before the Jets get consecutive first downs on offense. Mark it down.
Colts -3 vs. LIONS +3
My wife and I make a YouTube video every week during the NFL season where we try to pick the winners of each game. She makes me pick against the Colts hoping the opposite comes true, so I’ll say during the betting portion of my time that the Colts win this game cleanly. Their defense is just lights out.
I’m not in love with the spread here. I think you’re either all in on the Steelers or understand you can’t win them all and this is an okay road game to lose. I’m taking the Ravens by a field goal.
This is actually a pretty good matchup. I’d have taken the Browns with the homestand and the big win, but now I think they only win by a field goal.
I just want to keep the pressure on the Patriots, so I think they also lose this big Division game. They don’t have a quarterback worth starting right now. The Bills, on the other hand, have it going on on both sides of the ball. Big game for both teams and their seasons here.
Chargers -3 vs. BRONCOS +3
Every time the Broncos host a home game, I feel compelled to remind people of the power of homefield advantage when you get to factor in elevation and weather phenomena that don’t happen everywhere else, like... Los Angeles. This a nice step for Justin Herbert and this very young Chargers team wins by a touchdown.
It’s hard to establish momentum coming off of a disappointing loss, and the Seahawks are just going to have a hard time bouncing back, even at home. This keeps the 49ers in the Division race.
Saints -4.5 vs. BEARS +4.5
The Bears are not a good offensive football team. Le sigh. The Saints are actually the better team here and get a big road win.
Cowboys +8.5 vs. EAGLES -8.5
I can’t imagine being a fan of either of these teams. The Cowboys are a rudderless boat without Dak (RIP Red Rocket, too. Dang.). Carson Wentz is a future case study in a human being embodying Icarus. He has plays where he’s perfect (like he’s touching the sun). Almost reminds me of Andrew Luck. Then he makes the most boneheaded play on Earth the next play (like he nosedives into water). At least Philly has Meek Mill and cheesesteak? Philly wins, but it’s close?
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Buccaneers -11.5 vs. GIANTS +11.5
It’s games like this that make me wish the NFL could just move games on the schedule because they’re awful matchups. Play this garbage on a Tuesday afternoon. The Buccaneers are going to end the Giants as a franchise. This game, much like the Chiefs/Jets game, is just awful scheduling. Bucs by a million. Nobody goes to the zoo to watch the tiger play with its food. I can promise you that.