This is not gambling advice. Gamble at your own risk.
Every week during the NFL season, I put out a column that wholeheartedly intends to be a “WARNING: DO NOT GAMBLE” piece. However, because I take injuries, late-breaking news AND the betting line into consideration, I end up being right a little more often than normal. When I started writing about gambling, someone told me “if you’re right more than 55% of the time, you’re a professional, baby!”
Going in to Week 9, I had bet correctly 71 out of 118 games, good for about 60.2%. This has been trending downward after a hot start, and I’m afraid to tell you this past week wasn’t great, either. I’m still trying to process only being right a few times. I’m not going to pore over every game and beat myself up for being 3-11 last week, but holy moly. Fortunately, I did not bet heavily last week. 74 out of 129 is still 57.4% correct.
Let’s get into Week 10!
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (HOME team in caps, pick in bold)
This is a great matchup, an important Division game, and frankly the Colts have been game against the Titans for the entire time that team has existed. The Colts are relatively healthy, the Titan defense is beatable, and the Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL. Limit Derrick Henry and the Colts should win this game, say 24-21.
SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY
If you’ve read these articles so far, I’m hesitant to pick the favorite with these big spreads (because I try to think like an athlete and a big spread would be bulletin board material for me). That said, the Jaguars are bound to fall apart eventually, and after putting up a helluva fight against the Texans in Week 9, I think they just get run over by the Pack in Lambeau.
Imagine being Deshaun Watson, one of the very best quarterbacks in the NFL on the worst run franchise in the league. This game will be closer than the spread suggests, I think, but the Browns are just too much for Houston in the end.
Buccaneers -6 vs. PANTHERS +6
The Bucs took a massive loss last week against the Saints. Meanwhile, the Panthers lost a close game to the Chiefs. I understand that my logic is loose, but the Panthers have been more competitive than their record, and the Bucs less so. If I were being really ballsy, I’d call for a Panthers upset, but I see this as more of a 3-4 point game.
Eagles -3.5 vs. GIANTS +3.5
Similarly to the prior matchup, the Eagles have underperformed and the Giants, albeit also terrible, have given a good game to their opponents. I think the Eagles get a road Division win here, but let’s be serious, the NFC East is a dumpster fire.
Washington +4.5 vs. LIONS -4.5
I have no faith in an NFC East team on the road against an non-Division opponent. The Lions are terrible, but they aren’t nearly as bad as Washington. Remember, the average score of an NFL game is 23-20 and the average margin of victory is a field goal.
Bills +2 vs. CARDINALS -2
This is going to be a great game! These offenses are two of the very best in the NFL! The Bills beat the Seahawks by 10 points last week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals lost to the Dolphins. I don’t trust Arizona at home (2-2), so the Bills get a huge road win in Week 10.
Chargers +2.5 vs. DOLPHINS -2.5
I’m torn, if I’m being completely honest. On the one hand, the Dolphins beat the Cardinals last week! The Chargers lost a tough Division game to the Raiders. This is going to be a great game! Here, the Dolphins get a big home win to keep up with the Bills in the AFC East.
Broncos +4.5 vs. RAIDERS -4.5
I want to root for the Broncos as my second AFC team, but this team is just devastated with injury and there’s no way I’d bet on them to beat the Raiders in the Death Star. Notable, the Broncos are just 2-2 on the road. The Raiders are 4-1 on the road! Not relevant this week, but still!
49ERS +9 vs. SAINTS -9
I’m all for being confident, but I can’t take the 49ers losing to the Saints by double digits. I think the Saints win because they’re the better team right now, but it’ll be a close one!
Seahawks +1.5 vs. RAMS -1.5
The 2020 Seahawk defense might be a bigger liability than their offensive line has been. I can’t in good conscious take the Seahawks to beat the Rams on the road after losing by 10 to the Bills in Week 9. The Rams get a big home Division win!
I saw this spread and was immediately disappointed. Vegas doesn’t lie, and this probably won’t be that close of a game. There’s hope, though, if you’re a Bengals fan. Joe Burrow will elevate this organization. Just not this Sunday.
Of course, there’s this looming threat that the Hoodie pulls a big win out of his butt, but this Ravens team is the real deal. After beating the Colts, the only real way the Ravens lose is to massive injury or they beat themselves.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Vikings -3 vs. BEARS +3
After the Vikings manhandled the Lions by two touchdowns last week and the Bears lost to the Titans by a touchdown, it’s just difficult for me to see the Bears beating up on the Vikings, but you can really never count out this Bears defense.
Again, these are just quick thoughts after having looked at the spread, recent results, season records, injuries and any other newsworthy events. Ideally, you’d never bet on all of these games. I’d rank your predictions by your confidence in them. Then, I’d take 3-5 of the ones you’re most confident in and bet them in a parlay. Make sense? Have questions?