Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Excellent efficiency for Philip Rivers. Very few negative plays and those that were, weren’t that negative.
His charts are looking like roller coasters. He’s having more good games than bad though.
Short . . . short, short, short. It’s normally hard to find success when you only throw it 2.7 yards on average, but a 76.3% completion rate helps (net of qb spike).
This is the 3rd week in a row that the aDOT has been well below average. That will have to come up if the offense is to have continued success.
Just 2 weeks ago, Rivers was near the top of this chart in average air yards.
What’s this? A 100 yard receiver?
Michael Pittman now joins Marcus Johnson as the only 2 Colt WRs with both greater than average depth and greater than average value per target for the season.
I was very happy to see a bounce back in accuracy. Rivers threw short but even accounting for that, he completed more passes than expected.
Release time was much quicker this game. It seems clear that short passing was the design and not the fallback.
Lots of green = happy.
Dropbacks (db): Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT): Total air yards divided by attempts. It is a measure of how far, on average, a QB throws. Longer isn’t necessarily better but below a certain threshold and moving the ball is difficult.
Yards Before the Catch (YBC): The air yards on a completed pass.
Completed Air Yards per Attempt: This is average YBC. It’s like aDOT but excludes incompletions.
Yards After the Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.