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Every week during the NFL season, I produce an article detailing each matchup, observing the line, its movement, injuries, weather and trends to predict the winners of each NFL game. Through 9 weeks of play, I had bet correctly on 71 of the 129 games on the season for about 57.4% correct. Last week, we went 7/14 and as of right now, I am 78/143, good for about 54.5%, meaning I need to pick up the slack! My goal for 2020 is to bet correctly more than 55% of the time. We maintained that through 10 weeks. Not bad!
Onward!
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (Pick in bold, HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
O/U 56.5 (TAKE THE OVER)
I said it earlier this week, so I may as well repeat it. The Seahawk secondary is all-time bad. Kyler Murray for OPOY. Cardinals get a massive road win tonight! Both teams could score 30 each! Think 34-31.
SUNDAY (SUNDAY. SUNDAY!)
Steelers -10.5 vs. JAGUARS -10.5
O/U 46 (TAKE THE UNDER)
Mike Tomlin would have to disappear after the kickoff for me to believe this Jaguar team poses any kind of serious threat to a 9-0 Steeler team. I expect the Steelers to control this game from front to back, but don’t expect the Jags to put up much of a fight at all. Think 28-17 or more like 38-3.
Falcons +4 vs. SAINTS -4
O/U 52 (TAKE THE OVER)
Frankly, the Falcons can’t get out of their own way and even though there are questions about Drew Brees’ health and availability, the Saints led by Jameis Winston would still beat this hapless Falcon squad on remaining talent alone. That said, the Saints announced Friday morning that Taysom Hill will get the start and Jameis isn’t in the gameplan at all. They say that until Hill looks like a lost puppy out there. I expect a pretty high scoring affair with a lot of gaffes. Something along the lines of a 31-24 game regardless who starts or plays. That’s how bad the Falcons are.
O/U 47.5 (TAKE THE UNDER)
Neither of these teams are really doing it for me on offense, so I expect a turd of a football game in terms of what you see on the scoreboard. I’d be surprised if this wasn’t a 21-17 game.
O/U 49.5 (TAKE THE UNDER)
If I had an ounce of respect for the Titans as an organization at all, I’d say take the over and watch these fireworks, but I don’t, so this is where I landed. I think the Titans are a two-trick pony with Henry & Brown and have an illusion artist at quarterback in Tannehill in that occasionally, Ryan reminds you of a top 10 quarterback in the league, and sometimes he goes 15-27 for 149 yards, gets shut out in the second half and was inches from getting benched.
Fortunately for the Titans (otherwise this is a tight contest), Lamar Jackson is somewhat of an illusion himself in that some games he dominates like I’ve never seen before in terms of pure speed plus arm strength. Others, he forgets this is the NFL and gets severely limited by taking bad angles against good athletes. However, the floor for Lamar Jackson is most quarterbacks’ ceiling in terms of production and that falls in the upper levels of Tannehill’s ceiling, make sense? The Raven’s defense will limit the Titan offense and the Ravens will have great success with the ball. This is a 27-20 game and is over quickly.
I would take the under 2 and a half hour bet on this game.
Bengals +1.5 vs. WASHINGTON -1.5
This is the first emotional bet I am making all year. First, I want Joe Burrow and the Bengals to un-bungle the franchise, but it doesn’t happen in one game or one year, so instead I’m leaning on a repeat performance from Alex Smith. Possible ROTY versus Comeback Player of the Year in Burrow and Smith.
O/U 49 (TAKE THE OVER)
I hadn’t done a deep dive on defenses yet this year and oh wow are these teams bad. I’m going to take the Patriots on the road here by a field goal or more. Losers lose. Winners win. I’m thinking 28-24.
Lions -1.5 vs. PANTHERS +1.5
There was no O/U for this game.
I would avoid betting this game until I have better information on what’s going on with Teddy Bridgewater, and here’s why. The Panthers are better than the Lions on offense and both of these teams are bad defensively. At this moment, I’m taking the Lions on the road. There is no O/U for this game.
Dolphins -3.5 vs. BRONCOS +3.5
O/U 45 (TAKE THE UNDER)
My wife and I like Drew Lock (he was on a pre-draft TV show on ESPN+) and she likes Dalton Risner (good background story), but the Dolphins are rollin’ and the Broncos are the most injured team in the NFL this year. I think this is a 24-20 game.
O/U 46 (TAKE THE UNDER)
I like Justin Herbert like I like anyone else, and if the kid hadn’t cut that beautiful mane of his, I’d have said the over and the Chargers by a million. I saw that flattop of his and having worn that look for far too long and too little, that’s a hard no for me, dawg. The Chargers win, but it ain’t pretty. This is a 24-17 game.
O/U 51 (TAKE THE OVER)
This line has grown from earlier this week. The Colts were -2 a few days ago. This tells me that a lot of money is being wagered on this game both ways and it’s enough to move the line (obvious point is obvious). I’m taking the over, picking the Colts by a field goal in a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest that feels like a Super Bowl. I’m talking fans sweating at halftime wondering “what was in that chili?” Colts win 35-31.
O/U 47.5 (TAKE THE UNDER)
Talk about a stinker of a contest. Andy Dalton is rumored to be back for the Cowboys, so I think that breathes a little life in to an otherwise lifeless franchise. The Vikings have Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen, two of the most consistent players at their position in the NFL. This is a 24-20 Viking home win.
O/U 56.5 (TAKE THE UNDER)
This is a lively contest as the Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier this year. The Chiefs are more than capable of running up the score here, but something tells me this game ends closer than expected. This is a 28-21 game.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (ON ESPN)
Rams +4 vs. BUCCANEERS -4
O/U 48 (TAKE THE OVER)
The Rams are 0-3 on the road this season. The Buccaneers aren’t world-beaters, but they’re the favorite by more than a field goal, at home and didn’t just play the Seahawks last week and then have to travel across the country to play a tough Monday Night Game on the road. That said, there’s a lot to love on both sides. I think this game can go either way, really, but I’m taking the Bucs to cover. I’m thinking 31-21.
There you have it.
Listen, don’t bet on every single outcome. Don’t read this, take what I say for Bible and then hold me accountable when my premonition turns out to be mild lunacy. If I were you, similarly, I would go through each game’s line and as of now, the over-under. I’d think about the strength of each team’s offense, defense, and special teams (look at their Madden matchup).
Next, I’d consider recent success and major injuries. After you’re done (you want to make sure you have a balance of home/away winners because data shows us that the road team is winning 51% of the time this year and normally, the home team wins over 63% of the time. This means, the outcomes are less closely tied to the location and more neutral. Winners win, losers lose.
After you’ve done this, take the 3-5 outcomes you are most confident in and place your bets! I’d consult the internet for information on how to gamble. I’d argue it’s probably a good idea to sit this out if you haven’t done it before this year. This type of environment is conducive to massive losses. Think about how poorly we’ve bet lately when earlier this season we were correct almost two thirds of the time.
Enjoy the games this week.
Please wear a mask. People I care about are losing loved ones. They’re dying saying “COVID19 isn’t real. What am I really dying of?” Get out of your echo chamber. Come back to the real world. We need your help.