This is not gambling advice. Please gamble at your own risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN). 21+.
Every week during the NFL season, I put out an article just like detailing every game through the lens of someone willing to bet on the outcomes. Going in to last week, I was 78/143, good for 54.5% correct betting the games with the lines included. My goal for this season is to bet correctly more than 55% of the time (even though I would never bet every single game in a given week). This past week, we were 7/14 and did not bet the over-under very well at all, but everything is a work in progress, right? Sheesh. For the season, we are 92/157 and correct 58.6% of the time this year. We are hitting our goal still!
This is the absolute last thing I want to be doing today and it’s not because it’s a holiday. COVID-19 has left its mark on us all, but this week in particular has been wildly affected by it. I don’t want to give you information now that changes and feel like I should come back and edit my work again because people do place bets based on what I say (who knew). Actual NFL players (including former Colt Eric Ebron) are unhappy their Thanksgiving game got postponed due to the pandemic. Come on, man!
THANKSGIVING DAY (HOME team in caps, pick in bold)
Texans -3 vs. LIONS +3
O/U 51 (taking the under)
Normally, I’d turn my head from a certain disaster and when I say that, don’t look at Deshaun Watson. He’s wonderful. Literally every other aspect of this game is going to look like a bunch of grown men hurting each other and not fully understanding why. These are two middling-to-bad offenses playing against two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Hahahahaha!
Washington +3 vs. COWBOYS -3
O/U 46 (taking the under)
You’d think that in 2020, the NFL would tell its teams “Hey, all games are subject to rescheduling based on relevance”, especially in a situation where games are being played without fans in attendance. These two games should have been buried in the 1pm Sunday pile of games with the rest of the trash. Washington has a legitimate defense and both teams are bad on offense.
SUNDAY (SUNDAY SUNDAY)
Dolphins -7 vs. JETS +7
O/U 44.5 (taking the over)
I’m taking the over here only for two reasons, it’s really low and the Jets scored 28 points last week. Other than that, the Dolphins should win big here with a legitimate defense. Offensively, these teams leave a lot to be desired, but it’s Dolphins/Jets. Don’t expect fireworks.
Browns -6.5 vs. JAGUARS +6.5
O/U 49 (taking the under)
I’m taking the Browns to get a road win here in an otherwise sloppy affair because on paper it at least looks like they’re trying to do their job to the best of their ability. The Jaguars have mailed it in, specifically on defense. How they beat the Colts is beyond me.
O/U 53.5 (taking the over)
These teams are both competent at least! I’ll take the Bills (top 10 offense) to win at home, but expect the Chargers to keep it close with their nearly top-10 defense.
Cardinals -2.5 vs. PATRIOTS +2.5
O/U 49.5 (taking the over)
Okay, so I’ve been riding the Cardinals’ coattails all season and just think this is where I get off. These teams are comparable and frankly, that does not bode well for a road team playing in Foxboro. Sike! The Cardinals have a top 10 offense and on the other side of the ball are pretty close on defense, but that Arizona defense makes plays! This is a big road win for a young Kyler Murray.
Giants -6 vs. BENGALS +6
O/U 43 (taking the under)
I’m guessing that this will be the least-watched game this week and maybe season? There’s just not a lot of interest for me here. These teams are “bad” on both sides of the ball.
Raiders -3 vs. FALCONS +3
O/U 54 (take the over!)
This is what I’m talking about! We wait all week long for good football and while these teams leave a lot to be desired defensively, they’re both awesome to watch on offense. Take the over, understand there is no such thing as home field advantage and watch the Falcons flub a possible victory. I’m just saying! They can’t stay out of their own way!
Titans +3 vs. COLTS -3
O/U 51.5 (take the over)
I feel like I’ve been living in the twilight zone. The Colts have an elite defense? The Titans are one of the best offenses in the NFL? The Colts win this game because the Titans are terrible on defense.
Panthers +3.5 vs. VIKINGS -3.5
O/U 51 (take the over)
This game will be worth the watch, too! These teams are competent on offense and terribad on defense. I say this because who doesn’t like touchdowns?
Ravens +4 vs. -4 STEELERS
O/U 45 (take the over)
This might be the game of the week! These two teams are competent on both sides of the ball, although I’d argue the Ravens have struggled this season on offense. However, I firmly believe the Steelers have played a soft schedule and are banged up, so the Ravens come through and get a big road win. It’s hard to win in the NFL when you are down a ton of talent. Colts fans know this.
Saints -6 vs. +6 BRONCOS
O/U 43.5 (take the under)
This game has some intrigue because both teams are competent on defense. Obviously, the Saints are superior offensively, but this game isn’t in New Orleans. It’s in Denver. Elevation is a factor here. I’m not saying the Broncos win, but it’s closer than you think.
49ers +6.5 vs. -6.5 RAMS
O/U 45 (take the over)
This matchup features two middling offenses fighting an uphill battle against two elite defenses. However, the Rams are winners of two of their last three and are on an upswing. On the contrary, the 49ers have lost three straight and are on a downswing. I think the Rams do their part (put up points on offense, play good defense) and I just can’t get behind the 49ers doing the same.
O/U 56 (take the over)
If I weren’t completely off of Tom Brady as a quarterback, I’d think the home team wins here. However, Brady is bad and the Chiefs are consistent as you can get. I expect both teams to score, but the Chiefs will pull away in the end.
Bears +8.5 vs. -8.5 PACKERS
O/U 45 (take the under)
If it weren’t for the elite Bears defense, this Chicago team would be getting blown out every week because they have one of the worst offense in the league. I expect the Packers to win this game handily because they’re elite on offense and middle of the league on defense.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Seahawks -5 vs. +5 EAGLES
O/U 50 (take the over)
There is a school of thought here that says if Carson Wentz can’t handle this Seahawk secondary, then he is washed and needs traded/benched/exorcised. This Seahawk offense is elite running into an elite Eagles defense. However, as bad as Seattle is on defense, they’re not as bad as the Eagles are on offense. Make sense?
Wentz revitalizes his career and reunites with Frank Reich in 2021 in Indy?