Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
While many will likely disagree, this was not a bad game for Rivers. It was far from good, but production-wise it was just about average. Unfortunately, we needed something much, much better than just average.
A 0.19 EPA per dropback is a bit above league average, but if you were to add in a pick-6 that should have happened, that number gets a lot worse.
Yardage efficiency was way down but conversion rate was up.
Depth of target was good, but completion rate was poor.
Air yards of completions was about league average.
T.Y. Hilton led the Colts receivers in yards, but he didn’t break 100 yards. He also is now the leading receiver on the season, which is a sobering fact.
You want your wide receivers in the upper right quadrant of these next graphs and in general, they aren’t there for the Colts.
Accuracy this week was poor. It was a combination of Rivers throwing into traffic as well as receivers not hauling in very catchable balls.
Rivers continues to lead the league in lowest sack rate and 5th quickest release.
Well, at least the screen passes worked.
Dropbacks (db): Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT): Total air yards divided by attempts. It is a measure of how far, on average, a QB throws. Longer isn’t necessarily better but below a certain threshold and moving the ball is difficult.
Yards Before the Catch (YBC): The air yards on a completed pass.
Completed Air Yards per Attempt: This is average YBC. It’s like aDOT but excludes incompletions.
Yards After the Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.