Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
It’s really not Lamar Jackson’s arm you have to worry about, but that is all I am going to address here.
There has been a lot of variability in his numbers but overall, his passing production has been poor.
He throws farther than the average QB, but he isn’t getting better than average value from those throws.
His yards per attempt is on the low side (21st) due to lower than average yards after catch (25th). That could be due to accuracy or at least partially.
While he has OK TD volume, he hasn’t been much of a threat from far away, as his average TD pass is within the 10 yard line.
Marquise Brown is the top receiver, but Jackson spreads the love around pretty well.
See how on the season, the wide receivers have above average value? Colts receiving corps take note.
Jackson has not been accurate this year ranking 23rd in season cpoe and its trending down.
He holds the ball a long time waiting for those long passes to develop and he gets sacked a lot because of it.
The poor passing is spread all over the field.
Dropbacks: Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Yards After Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.