Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
I just watched Tom Brady get destroyed by the New Orleans Saints defense, so I know that Philip Rivers didn’t have the worst performance of any QB this week . . . barely.
This is beyond horrible. Only 14 of his passes had positive value.
Jacoby Brissett came in for 1 play and was called for intentional grounding . . . that play had a higher EPA value than Rivers’ average dropback.
Calling the measures in these next charts a “drop-off” is a critical misuse of the word. A better description might be “an infinite collapse into the void of football atrocity”.
1.7 average air yards per attempt. I can’t. . . I just . . .
His average completion traveled 2.6 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Well, you can’t get worse in average TD depth if you don’t throw any TDs.
I was going to say something about receiver talent but screw it.
That’s the start of a baaaad trend.
Quick throws, no sacks.
Man, he killed it on the left side of the field between 0 - 10 yards.
Dropbacks (db): Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT): Total air yards divided by attempts. It is a measure of how far, on average, a QB throws. Longer isn’t necessarily better but below a certain threshold and moving the ball is difficult.
Yards Before the Catch (YBC): The air yards on a completed pass.
Completed Air Yards per Attempt: This is average YBC. It’s like aDOT but excludes incompletions.
Yards After the Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.