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Every week during the NFL season, I put out an article on Thursday afternoon talking about each of the games, their lines and my expected outcomes based on those lines. This week, after talking about it first on my podcast Afternoon Pancakes, then with my wife on our weekly NFL Pick’em contest, I realized this week (of all weeks) is a bad week to bet or even produce content about betting because I believe this is a trap week.
This article that Draftkings puts out every week even tells you how other people are betting on this week’s games.
I’m going to put out what I expect to happen before I even turn on the TV to watch the games.
Thursday Night Football
Rams vs. PATRIOTS
If you went and watched or listened any of the content I made this week, I thought the Rams would win.
Sunday (Sunday! SUNDAY!)
Texans vs. BEARS +1
The rule of thumb when it comes to the lines is that the home team gets 3 points. This means when you see the spread less than 3, Vegas thinks the road team will win. We bet accordingly. Also, something to think about, traditionally the home team wins about 63% of games. With COVID-19 removing home field advantage, home teams now only win about 51% of the time.
Cowboys vs. BENGALS +3.5
Whenever the Cowboys are bad, just remember the Bengals are always going to be worse.
This spread is sneaky! I would have only taken the Chiefs straight up here.
Cardinals vs. GIANTS +3
I get that national media wants the Giants to be relevant, but this spread does not indicate to me that they watch Arizona play football.
Vikings vs. BUCCANEERS -6.5
Again, I think the Vikings are a good team that is poorly coached. The Bucs may win this game and hey, it may even be going away, but I think there’s a chance the Vikings get it done.
Broncos vs. PANTHERS -3.5
Here again, I think the Panthers are the better team, but that spread tells me it’s going to be a close game. I’d take the Panthers straight up.
Titans vs. JAGUARS +7.5
Of course I’d love to see the Jags beat the Titans, but for the sake of us dreamers, I would totally take the Jags and 7.5 points here. I’d only take the Titans straight up.
Colts vs. RAIDERS +2.5
My wife makes me pick the Colts’ opponent to win every week, but even purely thinking as a gambler, I’d take the Colts here to win straight up.
Jets. vs. SEAHAWKS -13.5
I’m not a fan of big spreads because I think they’re a trap. As bad as the Jets are, the Seahawks are terribad on defense and can’t protect Russell Wilson on offense. I would bet the Seahawks win the game?
Packers vs. LIONS +7.5
Again, I think this is a trap. I can see the Packers winning by more than a field goal here. I’d only bet them straight up.
Saints vs. EAGLES +6.5
You’re going to keep seeing me say it. I think this line is a trap. I’d take the Saints to win straight up.
Falcons vs. CHARGERS +2.5
This line is a trap! I think the Falcons win on the road.
Washington vs. 49ERS +3
I don’t like this matchup at all. I guess I’d take the red hot Washington offense?
I don’t think the Steelers have played anyone relevant and they will this week!
Ravens vs. BROWNS +3.5
I would not bet on the Browns to cover the spread in a million years. However, I’d bet on them to win or take the Ravens straight up.
So here’s the thing, if I look at the lines for a given week and wouldn’t bet on most of them, I don’t want to put out a betting column making definitive statements, have people bet on them and then leave me nasty comments.
That said, you can follow me on Twitter.
Enjoy the games this week!