Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
What a big win.
While Philip Rivers’ passing success rate wasn’t great, his EPA efficiency was very good. This was due to the good throws being very good and the bad throws being just marginally bad.
From an efficiency perspective, he has really only had 2 bad games. His EPA per dropback against the Raiders is currently the highest of any QB this week.
He stretched the field while maintaining good accuracy.
Both attempted and completed depths were much longer than usual.
Only 7 QBs have better yards per attempt, but 22 have longer air yards per completion.
I am now, officially, no longer worried about his ability to reach the endzone from distance.
Is T.Y. officially back? It sure feels like it.
That is closer to what these graphs are supposed to look like: receivers above the green line (above avg value) and wide receivers in the upper right quadrant (above average depth).
Positive cpoe = good accuracy. On the year, his completion rate on passes between 16 and 30 air yards is very good.
Quick throws. No sacks.
Good production spread out all over the field. It’s good to see passes > 20 yards again.
Dropbacks (db): Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT): Total air yards divided by attempts. It is a measure of how far, on average, a QB throws. Longer isn’t necessarily better but below a certain threshold and moving the ball is difficult.
Yards Before the Catch (YBC): The air yards on a completed pass.
Completed Air Yards per Attempt: This is average YBC. It’s like aDOT but excludes incompletions.
Yards After the Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.