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Happy Holidays!
Let’s get to the games!
Saturday Night Football (Pick in bold, HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Dolphins -3 vs. RAIDERS
Last week was a must-win Division game and the Raiders choked. This week, it’s a must-win and they’re just going to get beat by a better team. Bet that.
Sunday Slate
Falcons vs. CHIEFS -11
Hilariously bad is how this game is going to look. I expect the Falcons to score, but there’s no way they keep up.
Giants vs. RAVENS -10
There are a couple of teams you don’t bet against especially when they’re playing bad teams. Harbaugh is one of them.
Bears -7.5 vs. JAGUARS
I can’t imagine a scenario in which the Jaguars beat the Bears, but I’ve been wrong before.
Browns -7.5 vs. JETS
While I am sensing a trend (that every game is garbage this week too?), I am suspicious of the Browns and even more so at that line. I’d just take the Browns heads up and the money instead of donking it off trying to get cute picking every favorite to cover. Just me? Cool.
Colts vs. STEELERS -1
This line is moving towards the Steelers due to the Colts being down both starting Tackles on offense, but you can’t shake a 3-game skid going into the new year against a Top 3 defense. Roethlisberger is fading down the stretch and has thrown an interception in each of his last five games and has played worse than the game prior now three weeks in a row.
The Bengals beat the Steelers with Ryan Finley last week. If you think the Steelers are good, then you must also think the Texans are going to run away with this game, too? No. Sure, I think the Texans will win, but if you believe a team that beat an 11-3 Steelers team last week loses by more than a touchdown to a actual bad team like the Texans the next week, then... take the Texans straight up and at least make money.
Broncos vs. CHARGERS -3
I can’t imagine what it’s like to be one of the surviving members of the Broncos, who are plagued by injury this year. The Chargers are in a fight and this is not going to be an easy contest, but he Broncos don’t have the firepower to keep up with Justin Herbert.
Carolina vs. WASHINGTON -1
With Alex Smith injured, there’s no worse person to lead that Washington offense than Dwayne Haskins on the spot start. He’s bad when he’s the starting quarterback, but he’s real bad when he hasn’t been the guy. Carolina is having a down year, but Washington is perpetually down and only a 1-point favorite at home without their starting QB? Come on. Make your money.
Rams vs. SEAHAWKS -1
Everyone keeps telling me that the Seahawks are good and then I watch their defense. The Rams are a quagmire, but they’re familiar and by virtue up for a good game. This is a great game and I’m taking the more complete team to win.
Eagles -3 vs. COWBOYS
I graded quarterbacks for this past summer’s NFL draft guide and told you I thought Jalen Hurts was going to be a great starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s not great, yet, but he’s better than whoever Dallas trots out to battle him.
Titans vs. PACKERS -3
This is another situation where I think it’s loose to take the packers to cover the spread here because the Titans are going to give a good game and this could absolutely be a field goal game. Take the Packers to win straight up and make your money.
Monday Night Football
There’s a non-zero percent chance I should have taken a Bill Belichick-led team to do what he always does, but he couldn’t do that to the Dolphins and the Bills are a better team. That said, the Bills aren’t running away with this one. They’ll hang around. Take the Bills straight up and make your money.
Happy Holidays, wear a mask and stay safe out there.