The Colts have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but as Chris Ballard has mentioned before, he is always looking to upgrade every position. Graham Glasgow, a very good right guard, would be an upgrade over Mark Glowinski. Glasgow is not going to be retained by the Lions which means he’s going to be one of the most coveted offensive linemen on the market. Three comparable players for Glasgow are:
- Kevin Zeitler — 5 years, 60M (12M average) with 23M guaranteed | Signed in 2017
- Gabe Jackson — 5 years, 55M (11M average) with 16.5M guaranteed | Signed in 2018
- Justin Pugh — 5 years, 45.025M (9.005M average) with 13M guaranteed | Signed in 2018
The average of those contracts, adjusted for salary cap inflation would be 5 years, 61M (12.2M average) with $19,730,000 guaranteed.
The demand for a top interior offensive linemen is usually high, but what makes Glasgow more intriguing now is the fact that Joe Thuney and Brandon Scherff are both off the market due to the franchise tag, which makes Glasgow (by most accounts) the top interior offensive linemen on the market. It’s for those reasons why I think he’ll get 10% above the projected contract. If that’s the case, I expect him to get a contract worth:
5 Years, $67,100,000 (13.42M average) with $21,703,000 Guaranteed
An underrated player whose name has been circulating is Maliek Collins. Collins is a good, but not great defensive tackle who can provide value to almost any team. He is a skilled pass rusher with flashes of brilliance as a run stopper. The Cowboys will have an impossible time re-signing him, so he will hit the market without any restrictions. Three comparable players are the following:
- Denico Autry — 3 years, 17.8M (5.93M average) with 6.5M guaranteed | Signed in 2018
- Malcom Brown — 3 years, 15M (5M average) with 7.5M guaranteed | Signed in 2019
- Dean Lowry — 3 years, 20.325M (6.775M average) with 6M guaranteed | Signed in 2019 (but first year in 2020)
If accounted for salary cap inflation, the average of those three contracts is 3 years, $18,665,000 (6.22M average) with $7,220,000 guaranteed.
Collins is one of the better interior defensive linemen in free agency and at 25 is just entering his peak whereas a lot of the other top dogs are entering their 30s. Because of his age and his ceiling, I believe Collins projected contract will be 5% higher than the average of the three above. That means his contract will be:
3 Years, $19,598,250 (6.532M average) with $7,581,000 Guaranteed
Trufant was released by the Atlanta Falcons and should be one of the most desired cornerback free agents. Despite the fact that it’s a pretty loaded market with Byron Jones, Chris Harris and James Bradberry headlining, Trufant should be in line for something nice. Three comparable players to Trufant are:
- Dre Kirkpatrick — 5 years, 57.5M (10.5M average) with 12M guaranteed | Signed in 2017
- Casey Heyward — 3 years, 34.25M (11.416M average) with 20M guaranteed | Signed in 2019
- Joe Haden — 2 years, 22M (11M average) with 16.8M guaranteed | Signed in 2019 (but first year in 2020)
If accounted for salary cap inflation, the average of those three contracts is 3 years, 35.46M (11.82M average) with $18.39M Guaranteed
I believe with a high guaranteed percentage expected (veteran players usually ask for higher guaranteed amounts) and the saturation of the market (so many cornerback options), I think Trufant’s contract will be 10% lower than the projected average. That means his contract will be:
3 Years, $31,910,000 (10.63M average) with $16,540,000 Guaranteed
The Colts are so rich... HOW RICH ARE THEY?
With Anthony Castonzo under contract, the Colts’ cap space picture is getting a lot clearer. They’ve dumped Margus Hunt to save 4M and could easily do the same with Brian Hoyer to save another 3M. Like the last two times, if the Colts were to sign each of these free agents to these contracts and have them front-loaded by 20%, the Colts can easily afford all three, especially considering the fact that the Colts can release Mark Glowinski and save 4.1M (and have Glasgow replace him).
The Colts currently have around 68.3M in cap space. If they choose to release Glowinski and Hoyer, that frees up 7.1M and gives them around 75.4M in cap space. If the Colts were to sign each of those free agents to the front loaded deals, that’ll leave the Colts with 38.7M in cap space (75.4 - 36.7). If you account for the draft class (which will cost around 8.8M to sign), that leaves the Colts with 29.8M in true cap space.