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Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
The Minnesota Vikings are coming. Here are some key QB stats from Kirk Cousins. I have changed the format to include a trailing 17 week period.
HOW WELL?
He only had 25 passes last week, but overall, his passes added good value. Of course, that primarily came in the 2nd half when trailing by 2-3 scores, so there’s that.
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Most of his games are better than then NFL average mark in the key win stats and in a few games he has been downright dangerous.
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TO WHO?
Adam Thielen was his receiver of choice on Sunday, replacing Stefon Diggs.
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Thielen was targeted deep and that returned a lot of value.
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HOW FAR?
His passing depth averages . . . well, average. But in week 1, his depth of target was the 3rd longest of any QB. In the first half that was by design, at 16 air yards per attempt. In the 2nd half it was by necessity.
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Cousins has averaged 2.1 TDs per game and is tied for the 6th most TDs in the last 17 weeks. His TDs are on longer passes and from farther outside the endzone than the average QB. This kitty has claws.
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HOW FAST?
He takes a long time to get rid of the ball. Maybe our pass rush might show its head this week.
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HOW ACCURATE?
He’s an accurate QB, ranking 5th in cpoe for 2019.
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TO WHERE
He doesn’t really have any blind spots on the field. He has average to good production pretty much everywhere.
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GLOSSARY
Dropbacks: Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Yards After Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.