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Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
The New York Jets are coming. Here are some key QB stats for Sam Darnold over the last 17 weeks.
HOW WELL?
His last game was not good. Poor efficiency and poor success rate combine for production that is . . . well, poor.
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Going back to last year, he has had a couple of OK games, but he has been getting worse over his last 7 games.
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TO WHO?
That’s a lot of YAC, but not a lot of yards.
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This is an ugly week 2 depth chart. All receivers averaged less than the NFL average. That’s OK for running backs, but your wide receivers should hang out on the right side of the graph.
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HOW FAR?
He started fairly aggressively, but in his last 6 games, his average distance thrown and completed are trying to literally fall off the charts.
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His TD range is good. He’s able to have his passes end up in the end zone from far away.
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HOW FAST?
As his passes get shorter, his time to throw is quicker. That’s likely not more check-downs but rather more designed short passes. Just a guess.
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HOW ACCURATE?
His accuracy is about average, doing better than expected on short throws and worse than average on longer ones.
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TO WHERE
So, screen passes to his right are his forte. Not being good everywhere else is his normal.
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GLOSSARY
Dropbacks: Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Yards After Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.