This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season-long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
The model continues its strong performance, picking 5 of 6 winners straight up in Wildcard Weekend. It correctly forecasted the Browns to upset the Steelers and so gained a game on Vegas for the season, sitting 2 games back at a 66.4% accuracy rate with only 7 games left.
Against the spread, it went 5 for 6, missing only on Chicago to stay within 10 points against New Orleans. That puts the season's total accuracy at 56.4% ATS.
In the second week of the playoffs, the model likes the Ravens to upset Buffalo giving it a chance to either close to within a game of Vegas or fall to 3 back.
The math also really doesn’t think much of KC giving them the win, but only by 1 point.