Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Well, it was better than last week.
Rivers did better with a success rate measure than with an average dropback value. 51.9% PSR is actually decent, but the pick and some key incompletes dragged his EPA average down to 0 (that’s not good).
After looking pretty good through week 15, his last 2 weeks have dropped off in the key measurables. On the season though, this is top 10 efficiency (epa & yds).
He threw short most of the day, with only 2 completions over 10 air yards . . . unless you include the interception.
The distance on both attempts and completions were extremely short.
With only 26 targets, there wasn’t much love to share.
Given how the wide receivers started the season, it’s kind of a miracle that their 16-game total target distance and efficiency were above average. Clearly, Rivers and the WR corps got used to each other as the season wore on.
63% completion rate may not sound bad, but given the short distances, it is below average accuracy (-6% cpoe). Rivers ends the regular season very good between 21 - 30 yards, but not good longer than that.
After a 5-sack week 16, it gives me pleasure this week, to return to the same old mantra: quick release, low sack rate.
Not a lot of areas where he was good Sunday . . . because he wasn’t.
On the year, he was mostly average to good across all parts of the field.
Dropbacks (db): Attempted passes, Sacks or QB scrambles with QB spikes removed.
EPA per Dropback (EPA/db): For any given down, distance and field position, there is an average amount of points the team is expected to generate from that spot (EP). After the play the added EP (EPA) is calculated. EPA/db is the average of EPA for all QB dropbacks.
Passing Success Rate (PSR): This is the % of passes that were successful. Success is determined by dropbacks that have an EPA > 0. This is useful, as it evenly weights all dropbacks, so that extreme EPA events can’t bias the measure.
First Downs per Dropack (1st %): The percent of dropbacks that result in a first down.
Net Yards per Attempt (NY/A): Passing yards plus scramble yards minus sack yards divided by dropbacks.
Air Yards (ayd): The distance a pass travels through the air past the line of scrimmage. Passes behind the line of scrimmage have negative air yards. Batted down passes have 0 air yards.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT): Total air yards divided by attempts. It is a measure of how far, on average, a QB throws. Longer isn’t necessarily better but below a certain threshold and moving the ball is difficult.
Yards Before the Catch (YBC): The air yards on a completed pass.
Completed Air Yards per Attempt: This is average YBC. It’s like aDOT but excludes incompletions.
Yards After the Catch (YAC): The distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass.
Completion Percent Over Expected (cpoe): The percent of passes completed above expectation based on air yards, field placement and other variables. This is a proprietary stat provided by nflFastR.
Time to Throw (TtT): The number of seconds from snap to release on passing attempts.