Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
I don’t care what the scoreboard says, Colts won that game.
This was by far Carson Wentz’s best game of the year. Hell, it was his best game since 2018. The sack-fumble was his only big negative play of the night.
His 0.46 epa was 7th highest of the week and is the 2nd week in a row he has been highly efficient. His success rate rebounded and for the first time this year he had higher than average 1st down conversion rate (8th) and net yards per drop-back (2nd).
Even if I ignore Jonathon Taylor’s 76 yard TD, the rest of Wentz’s numbers are still very solid.
Simply a monster game for Wentz. Really, really, really happy with his play. If this is the Wentz we get long-term, then the Eagles were fleeced. Of course, 1 game does not a trend make.
His 11.5 yards per attempt was 2nd highest on the week and his incompletions were all on shorter passes. His longest incomplete pass was 7 yards. That’s kind of amazing.
Through 5 weeks, he now has the 15th longest ypa (7.6 yds), even if it has come on shorter throws.
This next graph is a rather bizarre outcome. His average pass length of 5.8 yds (gold line right axis) dropped dramatically from last week and was the shortest of any QB in week 5. However, his average 7.1 air yards on completed passes (blue line left axis) increased week over week and ranked 11th highest.
That’s not a bad thing. It’s an unusual thing, but not bad. The other way around would be a bad thing.
Jonathon Taylor and his 76 yard TD beats out Pittman for top receiver yards, but that’s kind of cheating as Pittman caught 6 of 7 targets.
For the 2nd week in a row, Wentz was on the + side of accuracy with a +2.3% cpoe on a 71.4% completion rate.
His deep passing is becoming a threat. He has the 8th best epa efficiency on pass attempts >=20 yards.
**sigh** Once more into the breach.
Wentz trimmed his average time to throw down to about league average, but again that comes with the shortest average throws of the week.
On the year, he has the 10th longest TTT on the 3rd shortest passes. Is that because he is a little slow to find his receivers or is it because he has faced the #1 most pressure of any QB? Yes.
Between 0 and 10 yards, Wentz had a little trouble, but everywhere else he was good.
On the year, he has done much better on the left side of the field.
The Colts ran a balanced attack this week (50% ed%) and the run game was strong (8th wrsr). Wentz threw primarily short passes (32nd adot), but connected on the longer ones (11th ay/c). Receiver yac was great (2nd yac, 2nd yacoe), but obviously skewed by Jonathan Taylor’s opening drive TD. It still counts though.
Combine the previous measures with good accuracy (12th cpoe) and that gives Wentz high yardage efficiency (#2 ypa), which was maintained even when expanding the scope to all drop-backs, as his sacks and scrambles weren’t excessive (17th scr%, 17th scr%).
When converting that yardage efficiency to epa, the fumble brings it down (18th to%), but Wentz moved the chains with his arm at a high rate (8th 1st%) and he found the end zone (10th TD%), so his overall efficiency was great (7th epa/d).
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.