As promised, each week as I sit down to write my article, I feel as though it’s in my/your/our best interest if we don’t gamble at all, but again, articles warning against gambling are not effective, so we have to acknowledge how futile it all really is.
I am absolutely red hot spitting hot fire through five weeks and am currently 15-5 against the spread on the season. That’s right. In my humble opinion, the “experts” on TV lay claim on who wins and average being right about 60% of the time. We are five weeks into a season and are betting straight underdogs correctly 75% of the time. That’s unheard of, really, to totally pat myself on the back.
It’s okay that almost no one reads this and appreciates it for what it is, but to me, being able to look at what games are going to be competitive and have a chance to be close or an upset is a valuable skill that maybe a network can use (clearly) when deciding which games to buy to broadcast or even in scheduling. Just saying.
I can feel this getting away from me this week, so I’m just throwing this out there. Among the first six weeks of this NFL season, I have the least faith in my two of my picks for this week that I have had in any other picks this season and I will tell you who and why I say that.
First, totally tongue-in-cheek, but the Lions +3.5 at home feels like a gimme against the Bengals. Both teams are bad, but the Lions have simply just been on the wrong side of a coinflip all season. I’m not saying they’ll win, but that they’ll simply be in another coinflip. I expect, that if I’m wrong about an outcome this week, it’s this one.
Second, the Colts -10 are 4-0 against the spread this season and while they’re a 10-point favorite and those things aren’t related, the Colts secondary is bad and tends to give up scoring plays, so I’d actually bet the Texans +10 to score a garbage touchdown or two late and make it a game or the Colts to start off slow and have to play catch-up all game. You get it. Again, this is an outcome I’m not terribly confident in. Why, you ask? Because Houston is awful. The Colts should win this game 100-0. They won’t.
Seriously, though, the Panthers +1 at home against the Vikings feels like a sure thing. I like the Panthers and I don’t think the Vikings are good at all. Is it just me or does Kirk Cousins give you the illusion that he’s good at football and simply fail to deliver? You get it.
My called shot of the week is absolutely the Chargers +2.5 on the road against the Ravens. This Chargers team is complete. The Ravens defense got exposed by the Colts in Week 5. Home field advantage is a real thing in Baltimore, though, so there’s that. However if anyone is due to lose a fight, it’s the Ravens.
My other called shot of the week is Monday Night Football. I’m taking the Cardinals +3 on the road against the Browns.
Confident enough to tell you which games I’m not that confident in. Hmm. A development.
Do you have questions for me? Comments? What lines do you like? Where do you bet?
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