Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: references to weekly ranks are of the 30 team QBs through Sunday night
3rd 2.5th week in a row, Wentz put together a solid game. The run-heavy scheme limited him to only 22 drop-backs, but he was highly efficient on those pulling in the 12th highest epa per drop-back this week (through Sunday night).
However, pulling up that number are the two 50+ yard completions, which hides a less than average passing success rate.
His first down conversion rate was just OK, but his net yard efficiency was very good for the 2nd straight week. Overall, this is trending well.
55% completion rate is not ideal, but the long bombs kept his yards per attempt high (4th best 11.2 yds)
He is steadily stretching the field resulting in a 9th ranked season ypa (8.0 yds)
Much longer attempts.
Much, much, much longer completions.
Well, hello there Mr. Hilton.
Wide receivers in the upper right quadrant. Me happy.
Wentz took a hit on accuracy this week with a 25th ranked cpoe. He is 17th on the year, which is fine. Not good, not bad.
Last week, I wrote that his deep passing was becoming a threat. It’s now progressed to Threat Level Midnight. On the year, he has the 2nd highest efficiency on passes of 20+ yards.
I wanted Wentz to either trim his TTT or throw longer passes: he opted for the latter. His 12th ranked TTT looks favorable to the 3rd longest passing depth. Pressure remains an issue, but he is finding downfield outlets that he wasn’t before.
Green deep passing is the best kind.
So far this season, the short middle has been a problem.
Even though it was a successful run-heavy game (8th wrsr), the Colts favored the pass on early downs (7th ed%).
Wentz aired the ball out (3rd aDOT, 9th 20+ attempts) and connected on bombs pushing his depth on completed passes to the 2nd highest of the week (ay/c). However, poor accuracy (24th cpoe) trimmed that a bit down to the 3rd best ypa. Sacks + scrambles were higher than league average (9th aa%) but despite that net yardage stayed high (3rd ny/d).
Add to that no turnovers (to 0.0%), a 9th best TD rate (8.7 td%), and an OK conversion rate (15th 1st%) and you end up with the 12th best efficiency (0.26 epa/d).
Here are his season totals.
I predicted that Wentz would hit a 0.13 epa/d for 2021 and he met that target this week, with no signs of stopping there. If he continues to play like he has the last 3 weeks, he will blow that number away.
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.