Opponent QB Stat Tracker: Week 3

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

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HOW WELL?

I’m including the passing play breakdown for Brissett against the Raiders as for me, it epitomizes the discussions around his QB play in general.

The red bars are all of the negative value pass plays. Notice that there are far more red bars than green bars (25th ranked passing success rate of 42%). The net average length of all of the bars is how well his average play was (22nd rank epa per drop-back of +0.05). Those are bad averages.

Yet, on Miami’s final drive in regulation, Brissett converted a 4th & 8, scrambled for a TD and completed a 2 point conversion pass to send it to OT. Then down 3 in OT, he converted a 4th and 20 to extend the drive and set up a game tying field goal.

His end of game heroics are enough for some people to say he had a good game despite any numbers. I am not one of those people. I am of the view that a good QB would have led his team to score more than 11 points prior to the last drive and not have been forced into those situations in the first place. 4th & 20 conversions are nice: avoiding 4th & 20 is even better.

He was better in week 3, but still far, far below average.

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HOW FAR?

His yards per attempt ranks 31st of all QBs and splitting that into air yards and yac shows he has the 4th shortest attempted passes.

His depth of attempt (the gold line) increased from week 2 to week 3, but his depth of completion (blue line) remained about the same. In other words, he threw farther but didn’t complete them.

He’s not on this next chart because you have to have a passing TD to qualify. So, I’m just showing this to make that point . . . 0 passing TDs.

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TO WHO?

Miami’s main “weapon” is Mike Gesicki. With Brissett under center, he has amassed 127 yards in 2 games.

At least he has wide receivers with greater than average play value, which is more than I can say for some AFC teams from the midwest . . . named after a city . . . but not from Ohio . . . and not the Chiefs . . . . it’s the Colts, I’m talking about the Colts.

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HOW ACCURATE?

In 2 games, Brissett has dialed up the 29th ranked accuracy (cpoe). Guess who is 28th?

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HOW FAST?

This is actually amazing. Jacoby Jajuan Brissett has a time to throw that is 0.06 seconds faster than the NFL average and ranks 21st.

Now, with the 24th ranked depth of targets that makes complete sense. However, with the Colts in 2019, he had the 21st average depth of targets but the 4th longest TTT. Is he developing a quicker processing time? Or is it that the play calls have been for fast developing routes?

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DASHBOARD

Here are his cumulative stats and rankings for the year.

With Brissett, Miami has been a pass first team (3rd ed%) with a horrible run game (31st wrsr). He attempts short passes (21st adot) and completes even shorter ones (28th ay/c). His accuracy is poor (29th cpoe) which all combines into the 2nd worst yards per attempt of any QB (31st ypa).

He isn’t taking an inordinate amount of sacks (13th sk%) but he does scramble a lot (8th scr%). That drags his net yardage efficiency even further down to a god-awful 3.7 yards per dropback (31st ny/d). That minimal amount of yards makes it hard to get passing conversions and thus he doesn’t (30th 1st%).

He doesn’t turn the ball over (26th to%), but he doesn’t score TDs either (31st td%). Altogether that makes for the 28th ranked epa efficiency (epa/d) with the 30th ranked success rate (psr).

GLOSSARY

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.

pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks

ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks

rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.