Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Jimmy Garoppolo has been on a 2.5-week injury absence, so here are his numbers through week 4.
He had a great week 1 against Detroit, who has a terrible passing defense. His ridiculously high 0.79 epa/d was driven off of solid play, but also a hit-as-he-threw, wobbly, underthrow 26-yard pass that Deebo Samuel turned into a 79 yard TD.
Since that game, he has just been “meh”. In games 2 - 4, he ranked 19th in epa/d, 15th in success rate, 23rd in conversion rate, and only 24th in net yardage efficiency. Those are comparable to Wentz’s season numbers, but Wentz has been getting much better and his last 3 weeks are much, much better (5th epa/d, 19th psr, 13th 1st%, 2nd ny/d)
He has the 10th ranked ypa at 7.9 yards, but again that is heavily biased by his week 1 output. Since week 2, that number drops to 6.6 yards (26th).
His passing depth is all over the place game to game, but on the season his passing depth ranks 30th and his completion depth is 25th. So, he throws short unless he doesn’t.
Replacement QB Trey Lance liked to run and so it depressed Deebo Samuel’s numbers the last few weeks, but with Jimmy G under center, he puts up big yardage.
On the year, his accuracy (cpoe) ranks 23rd with an average -3 points below expected.
In the most misinterpreted stat, he ranks 29th (4th quickest), getting rid of the ball an average of 2.56 seconds after the snap. That is not much time for a defense to have a successful pass rush.
It doesn’t seem to have any particular weaknesses by field location.
The overall warning with these numbers is that he has only played 3.5 games, so this is a small sample to judge him by . . . but I will anyway.
He has faced the 3rd easiest pass defenses and led a balanced attack (19th ed%) with a highly efficient run game (3rd wrsr).
He has not faced much pressure (28th pr%) as he makes quick decisions (29th TT). He doesn’t take deep shots (31st 20+) and on average he has short attempts (30th adot), relying on his receivers to provide above-average yac (4th yac, 2nd yacoe) which props up the 10th best ypa and 13th best net yardage efficiency.
He is about average turnover-wise (15th to%) and is able to move the chains through the air (12th 1st%), but his TD rate isn’t that impressive (19th td%). Overall, that blends into the 6th best epa efficiency (epa/d) and 8th best success rate (psr).
Here are his numbers with the first game removed.
A lot of this is the same story (e.g. easy defenses, balanced attack, quick short throws). The main difference in these numbers is that receivers provide less yac dragging down yardage efficiency and conversion rates and thus overall efficiency.
The point here isn’t to lay blame, but rather I am showing that because Garoppolo hasn’t played that much, a single game is highly influencing his overall efficiency. It is hard to estimate how good he really is in this offense without more games to go by.
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.