Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: references to weekly ranks are of the 24 team QBs through Sunday night
Obviously, the weather heavily impacted the passing game, so comparing these stats to previous weeks or other QBs comes with a giant asterisk.
Also, any accepted defensive pass interference is included in my data as a drop-back, so it is included in any metric that references drop-backs.
Wentz was only successful on about 1⁄3 of his drop-backs, but when he was successful, they were big plays. Conversely, for his negative plays, he had a lot of little ones and only 1 big one . . . but it was really, really big.
So, in the end, he had good overall efficiency (+0.26), but a horrible success rate (34.4%). Think of it as a high mean and a low median.
I’ve updated this next graph to display opponent icons and added markers in the background representing all other QBs for that week.
You can see the top 2 graphs show the high epa/d and low psr. The lower 2 show a below-average first down conversion rate, but an above-average net yardage efficiency (when def PI is included). There’s still a lot of variance in these metrics, but overall I like the direction.
Here is a new set of graphs showing the epa values (efficiency and success rate) against all QBs for the week (left) and for the season (right).
5.8 yards per attempt is not good in fair weather, but in a 4 quarter downpour, it can be excused.
Season ypa is 7.7 yds and ranks 10th, whereas his passing depth of completions is about average.
The depth of target was still above average even with the rain, but completion depth for the week was unsurprisingly below average.
Pittman still managed 100+ yards despite the downpour.
Wentz’s completion percentage was slightly below expected (-0.5%), which given the weather is actually really good.
His TTT has been trending down as he gets used to his receivers. He is no longer taking a long time to throw short.
These next graphs do not include the pass interference plays and are just official attempts. Deep passing was sparse but still successful.
Here is the data for the season.
This was another balanced attack (19th ed%) with successful rushing (3rd wrsr). Long attempts (6th aDOT) ended with multiple pass interference calls but primarily short completions (17th ay/c). Deep passing was frequent (14th 20+) and successful (2nd 20+e).
Good accuracy in bad weather (11th cpoe) was tempered by minimal yac from receivers (17th yac, 25th yacoe). That all blends into a poor yardage efficiency (19th ypa), but when adding in the penalty yards it rockets to a high net yardage per drop-back (5th ny/d).
A turnover (10th to%) and a low conversion rate (17th 1st%) dilutes the net yardage impact, but a high TD rate (8th td%) counters that resulting in the 10th best overall efficiency (0.26 epa/d). However, that was accomplished with a handful of large value plays as the overall passing success rate was very low (24th).
On the season:
drop-back: Attemps + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt (dpi included).
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards (dpi included)
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards + DPI yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles + DPI)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.