I’ve decided that despite evidence that warnings against gambling essentially have zero impact on a person’s decision to gamble or even to admit they have a gambling problem, I’m going to lead off every betting article I write by saying maybe don’t bet this week. This feels like a bad week to bet and more often than not, this is the case. Consider yourself warned!
All lines from BETMGM.
Don’t look away, but this is going to be an ugly week of games. There are games featuring such bad teams that it’s actually hard to come up with an outcome that seems likely.
What I’m getting at is that up to this point, we have bet against the spread at a blistering rate. Right now we are 14-5 against the spread or correct about 73.6% of the time after four weeks of the 2021 NFL season. I’m bragging so that I can tell you that I’m not very comfortable with the lines this week, specifically betting against the spread.
We’ve been suggesting parlays because of the potential payout should we be completely right one week. While we haven’t had a perfect week so far this year, our accuracy is above reproach strictly from the perspective of our peers being right about picking games straight up about 60% of the time and getting to be on national television doing it.
So far, we’ve been pretty good about betting the Thursday Night game, and we will absolutely take the Rams -2.5 over the Seahawks knowing there’s a percentage chance we are wrong entirely and the Seattle home crowd is the difference in the game or something.
The lines are so bad this week that the only early games I’d lay a wager on are the Vikings -9 to absolutely house the Lions and the Bucs -10 to thrash the Dolphins.
Now, for our against the spread bets for this Week 5, I like the red hot Buffalo Bills +3 on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs even though suggesting this breaks Rule #1 of betting the NFL (What’s Rule #1, you ask? Don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes. However.).
I’ll take the Chicago Bears +5.5 on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders because I don’t believe in the Black & Silver. I believe in mobile quarterbacks.
I’m fully suggesting the 49ers +5.5 are going to lose this game, but am also betting they keep it close until the end because the NFC West is insane right now and a nail-biter fits the narrative.
Lastly, the Colts +6.5 on the road on Monday night gives me pause because it breaks Rule #2 of NFL betting and that is never bet against Lamar Jackson. However, I’m not suggesting the Colts will win this game, just that they’ll keep it close. Of course, I believe the Colts can win, but not that they will. Maybe, though!
Additionally, right now I appear to be the only Stampede Blue staff member that is putting out a podcast. Here’s this week’s episode featuring Mateo Caliz, one of my colleagues here at Stampede Blue. Enjoy!