Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Through 4 weeks, Lamar Jackson has steadily improved his epa efficiency, but on the season he only ranks 19th best.
His passing success rate ranks 10th, his net yards per drop-back is 6th and his first down conversion rate is 11th, so the underlying drivers are good. It is his 4th highest turnover rate that is dragging down his overall epa.
His yards per attempt ranks 5th of all QBs and he has the longest average depth of completions in the league.
Here’s more evidence that he likes to throw far. He has the longest depth of target and the 2nd longest QB isn’t even close.
He doesn’t have a lot of TD passes (4), but they came from far away.
Marquise Brown doesn’t have the most targets, but he gets the most yardage by far.
Watch out for the guys in the upper right quadrants.
Lamar’s overall accuracy isn’t that good: he is only 21st in season cpoe.
With great depth of target comes great time to throw. His average drop-back takes 3.12 seconds, the 2nd longest in the league. Accompanying that is the 8th highest sack rate and 6th highest scramble rate.
Jackson has led a balanced offense (18th ed%) with a strong run game (2nd wrsr) against less than average opponent passing defenses (20th opd).
He has the longest attempts (1st adot) and longest completions (1st ay/c) of any QB but to accomplish that, he holds the ball a long time (2nd TTT) which invites pressure (6th pr%) and results in a lot of sacks (8th sk%). His successful scrambling (6th scr%) counters that pressure and along with good receiver yac (10th yacoe), helps support his 4th best yardage efficiency (ny/d), which leads to the 11th best first down conversion rate (1st%).
The good news for the Colts is that he has less than average accuracy (21st cpoe) and has turned the ball over a lot (4th to%). He hasn’t thrown many TDs (24th td%) and his red zone efficiency is poor (21st rze). Overall, his long passes have been more miss than hit (24th 20+e)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.