Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: references to weekly ranks are of the 28 team QBs through Sunday night
I hate to break it to those saying that Carson Wentz played a good game, but he did not. Now, of course, the 2 picks were the most egregious plays and if you remove those . . . then he still wasn’t that good.
His overall epa efficiency was -0.10 which ranks 22nd of 28 QBs and was the worst number he has posted since he last played the Titans. However, his 50% passing success rate was an improvement relative to the past few weeks.
To put those numbers into perspective, the next chart shows those stats by QB for week 8 and for the year.
- Notice, on the week 8 chart, how far to the left the horseshoe is. That is bad.
- Notice for the season it is below average for both efficiency and success rate. That’s not good either.
The next chart shows his first down conversion rate and net yardage were the lowest he has put up as a Colt so far (bottom 2).
8 weeks into this experiment and he has really only put together one complete game (Baltimore). Wentz hasn’t been bad on the whole, but he also hasn’t been as good as people are saying. Fans are getting blinded by good performances against easy defenses and cherry-picking stats that don’t describe the actual value of the game. Seriously, stop using passer rating!
There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about his future, but so far our passing game has taken a step backward from last year and we shouldn’t pretend like that is not the case just because he is not Jacoby Brissett.
He attempted 17 passes of 10+ yards and completed a whopping 2 of them . . . TWO!!
His 4.5 yards per attempt, was the 2nd lowest this week (I’m looking at you Trevor Lawrence).
His 7.1 season ypa is now below average (19th) and the portion of that attributed to passing depth is the 11th shortest (22nd longest).
Wentz tried to stretch the field this week with the 5th longest attempts, but he couldn’t connect on them, settling for a 20th ranked 4.1 air yards per completion. That’s not a good combo.
His TDs this week were all from short-range (3.3 avg air yards), but on the year he has shown that he can hit the end-zone from far away.
I shudder to think what this passing offense would look like without Pittman.
You want your wide receivers to have above-average depth and above-average value on catches. Maybe next week.
Wentz’s 52.9% completion percentage is just terrible. Even when adjusting for passing depth, it was -13.5% below expected and 4th worst of any QB. That’s the equivalent of 7 completions left on the field.
On the year, his accuracy ranks 26th.
His time to throw jumped up to just shy of 3 seconds, but with the 5th longest passes that makes sense, so nothing to really read into that. However, not completing many of those long passes is, shall we say, not ideal.
Nothing over 10 yards was working and not much inside of 10 was either.
For the season.
People always tell me they trust their eyes when it comes to QBs, but a lot of you seem to be near-sighted. Here’s what Wentz actually did.
For whatever reason, the Colt’s had the highest early-down passing of any team (1st ed%) even though the run game was very successful (3rd wrsr). Wentz used the 3rd longest time to throw (2.98 ttt) to attempt the 5th longest passes (9.5 adot), including the 6th highest rate of deep passes (12.5% 20+). Unfortunately, his accuracy was not good (26th cpoe) and he only completed primarily shorter passes (20th ay/c).
This was a huge drag on gross yardage efficiency (27th ypa) and even his ability to avoid sacks (22nd sk%) couldn’t lift that ranking when it came to net yardage (27th ny/d). With lots of short yardage passes comes lots of not getting first downs through the air (27th 1st%). And of course he turned the ball over multiple times (9th to%).
Despite all of that negative play, he did manage to throw 3 TDs (7th td%). However, since they were all from close to the goal line, it couldn’t lift his passing value on the day to above 22nd (epa/d -0.10).
Here are his season numbers, which are not much to speak of . . .
. . . of which, are not much to speak? . . . much of which are not to speak? . . . whatever.
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.