Carson Wentz Stat Tracker: Week 10

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: All references to rankings are of the 26 QBs that have played as of Sunday night.

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HOW WELL?

Bad, bad, bad. I’m not sure about you, but when my QB plays the worst passing defense in the league, I expect him to be . . . oh, I don’t know . . . not awful?

There is a lot of red in the next chart because Wentz had a lot of negative value drop-backs. His 36% passing success rate is terrible. It is also, unfortunately, only his 3rd worst of the year. His -0.10 epa per drop-back this week is bad. Like 2020 Wentz bad. As in that was his exact efficiency in 2020 when he was arguably the worst QB in the league.

Wentz’s inconsistency over the season is literally on display with these roller coaster charts.

For those that think Wentz is playing like a top 10 QB. I want you to do 3 things:

1. Stop thinking that.
2. Really look at the above charts and count the number of games that he has been below average in these measures . . . measures of events that actually drive offensive points.
3. Write down the 22 QBs that you think are playing worse than Wentz and refer back to #1.

On the year, Wentz is far from horrible, but he is also far from very good.

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HOW FAR?

Wentz had 7 attempts >=10 yards and completed only 2 of them. A 5.3 ypa is exceedingly Brissettesque.

His depth of target was ridiculously short (2nd shortest) and so it shouldn’t be surprising that his completions were as well (6th shortest).

On the year, his yards per attempt rank 21st on the back of short passing depth (24th of 32). Short passes are fine as long as the QB has is accurate: Wentz has not been.

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TO WHO?

It’s never a good sign when a running back is the most targeted receiver. Meanwhile, Pittman caught everything thrown his way. Good thing we didn’t test that too much.

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HOW ACCURATE?

There are those that say a 64.7% completion rate is pretty good. Then there are those that say with a depth of target of only 4.9 yds and other relevant variables, the average QB would complete 7.5% more of those passes and thus it is not a good performance at all. OK, nobody says that, but they should, because it’s true.

On the year, Wentz’s accuracy (cpoe) ranks 26th.

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HOW FAST?

His time to throw stayed basically flat to last week, but since his passing depth dropped dramatically, it’s actually a relatively longer reaction time. Clearly, Wentz had trouble finding targets downfield this week.

At 10 weeks in, it should be 100% crystal clear to everyone that Wentz holds the ball longer than the average QB and throws the ball shorter than the average QB . . . like I’ve been saying since week 1. That’s not necessarily a bad thing but it could be.

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TO WHERE?

His 1 deep pass was successful, so . . . yay?

On the year:

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DASHBOARD

Here is the comparison to the 25 other QBs that have played so far this week.

The Colts were slightly pass-heavy (11th ed%), but on primarily short throws (25th adot, 21st ay/c). Accuracy was poor (-7.5% cpoe) and the receivers didn’t add much yardage (17th yac, 19th yacoe). Those measures combine into short yardage efficiency (4.7 ny/d).

Wentz didn’t turn the ball over, but he also didn’t find the end-zone or throw many first downs (24th 1st%). Along with the short yardage, this rolls up to a -0.10 epa efficiency, which in any other week would rank near the bottom of QBs. However, 18 of 26 QBs failed to beat the 2021 efficiency avg this week and so Wentz is actually bestowed a rank of 18th.

On the year his epa efficiency stays fixed at 17th . . . not top 10 . . . 17th.

GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.