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Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: All references to rankings are of the 26 QBs that have played as of Sunday night.
HOW WELL?
Josh Allen has had some ups and downs, but overall, he is trending far above average in epa efficiency, passing success rate, conversion rate and yardage efficiency.
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HOW FAR?
In general, he throws the ball far (6th longest season adot, 4th longest completions), but there have been exception games.
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He has the 11th longest yards per attempt, with the 3rd highest air yards per attempt.
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TO WHO?
Stefon Diggs is the clear #1, with Sanders and Beasley battling for the 2nd most receiving yards.
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Beasley gets his yards off of primarily short outlet passes with Sanders and Diggs being the deep threats.
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Allen’s TD Depth is right around average and clumped together with the leading TD throwers in the league.
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HOW ACCURATE?
He has been pretty accurate all year, with the 6th highest cumulative cpoe of any QB. His completion rate on very deep passes (>30 yards) is ridiculously higher than the NFL average.
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HOW FAST?
He takes a long time to throw, but we know he throws long passes, so that makes sense.
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TO WHERE?
His deep passing is where he stands out. He is only marginally above average on throws < 20 yards.
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DASHBOARD
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He has faced the easiest opponent passing defense of any QB (32nd opd) and done that with the most aggressive early down passing (1st ed%). His passing is supplemented with a good run game (9th wrsr), so that sucks. Relative to his long time to throw (8th ttt), he doesn’t face much pressure (13th pr%), suggesting good protection.
He throws long passes (6th adot) with high accuracy (6th cpoe). His receivers get minimal yac (28th yac, 28th yacoe), but that is to be expected with long completions (4th ay/c). That all combines to good gross yardage efficiency (11th ypa) and with the 5th lowest sack rate (3.6% sk%), that boosts net yardage efficiency to the 9th best in the league. In other words, his average drop-back gains more yards than most QBs (7.0 ny/d).
He doesn’t turn the ball over (26th to%) and he gets lots of first downs and TDs (6th 1st%, 11th TD%). That all culminates into MVP like efficiency (6th epa/d, 7th psr). Interestingly, he is far more successful outside the redzone than inside (6th orze, 14th rze), which is primarily driven by outstanding deep ball passing (2nd 20+e).
GLOSSARY
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.
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