Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by attempts through current week.
Tom Brady is still putting up good numbers at age 44.
His cumulative season rankings for the above numbers are:
- 6th in epa/d
- 3rd in psr
- 4th in 1st%
- 5th in ny/d
In the first 5 weeks, Brady was throwing long passes, as one does in a Bruce Arian’s offense. However, since then, his passing depth has dropped back to just NFL average. The depth of his completions is actually below average.
Yards per attempt is 11th on the season and the air yards portion of that is about average.
Chris Godwin has the most targets and yards, but Mike Evans has the most air yards, showing he is the deeper threat.
The next chart on the right has the top 2 receivers in the upper right quadrant which is exactly what a potent passing game should look like.
Brady’s TDs come from the same distance as most of the top TD volume QBs.
Overall, his accuracy has been good (shocker) ranking 11th in cpoe on the year.
As always, Brady gets rid of the ball very quickly, yet he has thrown farther than average. That is exactly what you want your QB to do.
On passes longer than 10 yards, he is actually a bit worse than the average QB, but he more than makes up for it between 0 and 10 yards.
Against strong passing defenses (7th opd), Tampa Bay has one of the most pass heavy offenses (4th ed%) with a highly efficient rush game (6th wrsr).
Brady releases quickly (31st ttt), helping to avoid pressure (32nd pr%) while still throwing farther than average (11th adot, 9th 20+), but limited success on longer passes results in shorter than average completions (19th ay/c). His higher than average accuracy (11th cpoe) helps support a better than average yardage efficiency (11th ypa) and since he never scrambles or gets sacked (30th scr%, 32nd sk%) that translates to a 5th best net yardage efficiency (7.0 ny/d).
He turns the ball over less than the average QB, but not dramatically so (21st td%). He has the highest TD rate in the league (6.5% td%) and gets a lot of first downs (4th 1st%) showing his solid ability to move the ball down the field. This culminates in the 6th best epa per drop-back (0.22 epa/d).
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.