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Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: I’m not waiting for the other teams to play to post this, so there are no comparisons to other teams.
HOW WELL?
Wow, Wow, Wow. What a turn-around!
Obviously, I can’t compare Wentz to other week 9 QBs yet, but I can say that a 0.46 epa per drop-back ranks in the 85th percentile of QB games this year. And a 66.7% passing success rate is in the 98th percentile.
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I have said a few times that the Baltimore game has been his only “complete” game, but you can add this one to the list as well. He wasn’t just above league average in these 4 stats, he blew the averages a way.
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HOW FAR?
That is an official butt-load of passing first downs. His 9.0 yards per attempt is an 80th percentile effort.
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His depth of target was longer than average but his completions were primarily shorter passes. This is the 2nd week in a row that he’s done that, but at least he completed a lot of passes over 10 yards this week, which is why you see the slight uptick in the blue line.
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He’s pretty much average in passing TD depth. Nothing wrong with that.
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TO WHO?
Pittman edged out Pascal in total receiving yards this week, but Pascal got the lion’s share of the passing depth.
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Pittman got the most value, but Pascal had the deepest avg targets. Wait, didn’t I just kind of say that with the previous chart?
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HOW ACCURATE?
A 73.3% completion rate almost assumes good accuracy, but with such short passes, that is not necessarily true. However, Wentz’s expected completion rate was 68.2%, so that give him a +5.1% cpoe and that is very good accuracy.
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HOW FAST?
He significantly reduced his time to throw from last week and that came with slightly shorter throws, so that all lines up. Move along. Nothing to see here.
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TO WHERE?
It’s good to see green areas past 10 yards. That was missing last week.
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On the year:
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DASHBOARD
The weekly dashboard has no other QBs to compare against, so here are the updated season numbers.
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His 0.14 epa/d is just a tick higher than what I predicted for the year. Here’s to hoping he continues to increase that number and prove me wrong.
GLOSSARY
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.
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