Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
I’m going to do things a bit differently this week. Before I dive into the joke that was Colts passing in week 15, I’m going to review Carson Wentz’s cumulative stats for the year. I think it will better set the stage for what an anomaly this game was and remind you, who Wentz really is as a QB.
(Glossary of terms at the end of the article)
On the year, Wentz has faced average passing defenses in terms of the amount of epa they have given up (0.08 opd). On early downs in game neutral situations, he passes 51% of the time, which is right about league average (16th ed%). So, he leads a balanced attack that is supported by a highly efficient run game (1st arsr).
Relative to other QBs, he holds the ball a bit long (11th ttt), but unfortunately, that doesn’t translate into long throws (20th adot). He doesn’t attempt deep passes very often (23rd 20+), even though he has been very successful when he does (10th 20+e).
His average completion depth is 5.8 air yards, which is right near the league midpoint (16th ay/c) and his receivers provide about average yac (14th yac, 16th yacoe). However, those measures are diluted by Wentz’s very poor accuracy (28th cpoe), which drags his yardage efficiency down to 7.0 yards per attempt (22nd). This is a problem.
He faces the 8th most pressure (36.7% pr%), but relative to his 11th ranked time to throw, that is not unusual. Even when facing above average pressure, he abandons pass attempts less than the average QB (20th aa%). He does so via scrambles and throwaways rather than taking sacks (14th scr%, 14th ta%, 24th sk%) and because he manages pressure well, this boosts his 22nd yardage efficiency rank to 19th on a per drop-back basis (6.2 ny/d).
He does not turn the ball over often (28th to%) and he throws a good amount of TDs (12th td%). On the other hand, less than a third of his passes translate to first downs, which is near the bottom quartile of QBs (24th 1st%) and is a considerable drag on his overall value.
All of this combines into a 17th ranked efficiency (0.10 epa/d), which means he delivers basically average value per drop-back. His passing success rate ranks a bit lower at 20th (46.5% psr), so his efficiency depends a bit more on explosive plays than other QBs.
OK, now on to this week’s ridiculousness.
The chart on the left compares QB performances from week 15. Good performances are found towards the right and the top. If you are having trouble finding Wentz, look as far to the left and towards the bottom as you can.
The chart on the right is the season performance and Wentz his trying his hardest to be the most average QB in the league.
Out of 14 drop-backs this week, Wentz only had 5 positive value plays. That winds up being a 35.7% success rate and unfortunately, that is not the worst that Wentz has done this year (week 7 34.4% , week 3 32.5% ). His epa efficiency was even worse as only Mike Glennon added less value per drop-back than Wentz.
This was by far his worst game as a Colt and continues the trend of never knowing who is going to show up each week.
He only had 5 completions, so walking through the details seems pointless. For attempts greater than 5 yards in distance, he completed as many to the NE as he did to Colt receivers.
He attempted longer passes, he just couldn’t complete them.
His season long yards per attempt drops to 22nd with the 21st shortest air yards per attempt. That’s important and it’s not good.
I can’t even.
The upper right quadrant is where you want your wide receivers to be. Survey says, XXX.
A 41.6% completion rate is bad no matter how much you adjust it, but just to confirm, his adjusted rate of -25.5% cpoe was terrible.
I don’t have a time to throw number this week because Wentz threw so few passes that Next Gen Stats didn’t bother to publish it. I’ll assume he was slow.
He was not successful deep. He was not successful mid-range. He was not successful in a box. He was not successful with a fox. He was not successful here nor there. He was not successful anywhere . . . well, other than passes <0 yards.
I’m not going to break down a narrative for this game. Wentz sucked, plain and simple. But if you like, here are the numbers relative to the 24 QBs that have played through Sunday night.
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.