Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by attempts through current week.
Here is what Kyler Murray has looked like on the season.
He has faced easier than average passing defenses (24th opd) on a pass-first team (6th ed%) that has been very successful on the ground (8th arsr). He doesn’t hold the ball a long time (15th ttt), which helps manage opponent pressure (22nd pr%) and he still gets good passing depth (9th adot). He attempts a lot of long passes (2nd 20+) and is highly successful when doing so (2nd 20+e).
His completions are the 6th longest of any QB (6.5 ay/c) and while his receivers gain good yac (5.6 5th), it isn’t more than expected (15th yacoe). His accuracy is very good (5th cpoe), which results in great yardage efficiency (2nd ypa).
His sack rate is a little high relative to the amount of pressure he sees (14th sk%, 22nd pr%), but he primarily handles pressure with scrambles and throw-aways (8th scr%, 6th ta%). Because he manages that pressure well, his overall yardage efficiency isn’t diluted much (3rd ny/d).
His turnover rate is about average (18th to%) and he throws a lot of TDs (8th td%). He’s strong at getting first downs from passing plays (7th 1st%).
That all rolls up to the 4th most efficient QB in the league (0.21 epa/d) with an even better passing success rate (3rd psr). One glaring weakness is his near-league-bottom red zone success (28th rze).
Murray’s efficiency is near the top of the league, but as pointed out above, his red-zone success (28th) is much different than this success outside the red zone (2nd orze).
He has been pretty good in most of the critical passing stats throughout the year, with the glaring exception of the last 2 games, where he saw a severe drop-off.
His passing depth varies a lot by game, but tends towards longer attempts.
With Hopkins out, A.J. Green and Christian Kirk have really stepped up.
Murray is dangerous, as he can find the end-zone from far away.
He has been one of the more accurate QBs in the league this year.
He has an average time to throw, which is in line with his depth of target. This implies that he sees his receivers well.
He finds success all over the field, but he is weakest on passes between 0 - 10 yards.
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.