Carson Wentz Stat Tracker: Week 16

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

Ranks are based on the 30 QBs that have played through Sunday night.

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DASHBOARD

Great game. Great QB performance. Let’s just jump right to the summary.

(Glossary of terms at the end of the article)

The Colts played a run-first scheme (27th ed%) and for the first time since week 2, the run game was woefully inefficient (30th arsr). That meant it was critical for Carson Wentz to deliver on his passing downs. He did.

Wentz was quick to get rid of the ball (26th ttt) on shorter than average attempts (19th adot), but had the 7th longest completions (7.7 ay/c). His accuracy was about average (18th cpoe) and the wide receivers did not provide much incremental yac (14th yac, 13th yacoe), but the overall yardage efficiency was good (10th ypa).

That yardage was diluted a bit by sacks (14th sk%), but Wentz still maintained an above-average net yardage efficiency (13th ny/d).

He made those yards count by converting a lot of first downs (11th 1st%) and throwing TDs (9th TD%). Combine that with no turnovers and you get a highly efficient and successful game (8th epa/d, 13th psr).

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HOW WELL?

In these efficiency/success graphs, the upper right quadrant is a good place to live and Wentz did that in week 16.

On the year his success rate is a bit below average and his epa efficiency is a bit above average, so he is hovering near the intersection of the axes.

In the first half, Wentz was on fire, providing a lot of positive value plays. The second half saw more and larger negative plays, but he also had some big completions that made up for it.

He bounced back from a horrible New England game to perform well above average in the 4 most important stats.

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HOW FAR?

He had a completion drought to start the 2nd half, that saw his yards per attempt dip down to the “this is why we can’t have nice things” zone. However, he turned that around and a spectacular finish cemented a 8.0 ypa game.

Short attempts, but long completions. Can’t complain about that.

His season-long yards per attempt jumps to 20th with the 20th avg pass depth. That’s still not good, but it is a step in the right direction.

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TO WHO?

Eugene Tyrone made a critical appearance.

The season drop-off from Pittman to <fill in receiver name here> is more than concerning.

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HOW ACCURATE?

Completion rate and accuracy were both about average this week, which is an improvement.

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HOW FAST?

This game tied his quickest release time of the year.

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TO WHERE?

The short passes weren’t working nearly as well as the longer ones. I guess he really liked the left side.

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GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.