Each week during the NFL season, I put out and article that starts the same way. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT.
Here’s a link to Episode 17 of Mateo Caliz and I’s podcast The Coltist.
For the 2021 NFL season, betting against the spread has been good to us as, at this point, we have won now about 72% of our bets on the year. Our picks are gold. There is no Thursday Night Football this week. All games are played Sunday & Monday. Just a heads up. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
I think a lot of people are inclined to pick up the Cincinnati Bengals +5 this week and I have to be honest and say that I’m not feeling it. I think the Kansas City Chiefs -5 are surging and you don’t bet against elite QB play. I love me some Joe Burrow, but the gap between he and Patrick Mahomes is wide enough that I’d feel more comfortable predicting the Chiefs to win by 10.
The Miami Dolphins +3.5, winners of 7 in a row, on the road against the Tennessee Titans, losers of 3 of their last 5 games, look like a great ATS pick for the week. Success breeds confidence and if I were the Dolphins, I’d bet chomping at the bit to put a beating on the injured Titans while I can.
The Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 are a juicy ATS pick this week but are playing against THE Indianapolis Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium, the loudest indoor stadium in the league, no doubt. I think the Colts will win, and notably, the Raiders get destroyed by good football teams like the Chiefs and frequently find themselves in tight ballgames with bad football teams. Are the Colts an elite football team? Then take the Colts -6.5 and ignore me.
Look, I’m not saying the Minnesota Vikings +6.5 are going to beat Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers -6.5 on Sunday Night Football. I’m saying I think it could be a close game and for that reason, it’s not terrible to suggest the Vikings can keep it within about a field goal game.
Also, I’m not saying the Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (and hosting!) are going to beat the Cleveland Browns -3.5. I am saying that the Steelers have a tie on their record and are home underdogs to what I view as a subpar Browns team at this point.