Carson Wentz Stat Tracker: Week 13

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: All references to rankings are of the 28 QBs that have played in Week 13.

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HOW WELL?

On the season, Wentz has logged a 0.12 epa efficiency, which he nearly matched against the Texans in week 13 (0.11). That’s a bit above league average, but not dramatically so (15th 2021).

Wentz had a higher success rate in week 13 than he has had on the season (54.2% week 13 5th vs 46.8% 2021 20th).

Here is epa efficiency and passing success for Week 13 broken out by play. Wentz didn’t have any super high-value plays, but he minimized the negative ones both in volume and magnitude, resulting in a solid passing game.

The trend of his critical numbers is hovering around the league average.

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HOW FAR?

He didn’t have the deep passing attempts he had in week 12, but he was consistently completing the shorter throws.

His depth of target fell off to below league average as did his completed pass depth.

Season-long yards per attempt remains unchanged at 7.0 ypa, with a 21st rank (of 32). The air yard portion of that moved up 2 spots to 22nd.

He is stretching the distance on his TD throws.

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TO WHO?

Woohoo! The leading receiver was not a tight end! Michael Pittman remembered he was a receiver and led the offense in targets, receptions, and yards.

T.Y. Hilton managed above-average depth and value on his targets this week, something he has not done often in 2021.

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HOW ACCURATE?

With the shorter throws, Wentz completion rate dramatically increased, but even accounting for the distance he was accurate (+5.4% cpoe).

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HOW FAST?

Ironically, with the shorter throws came a longer time to throw, but it was not dramatic and it did not affect his sack rate.

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TO WHERE?

Wentz was not successful deep, but his 0-10 yard passes made up for it.

On the year, he has found success at multiple levels of the field.

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DASHBOARD

Here is the comparison to the 27 other QBs that played in week 13.

The Colts went run-heavy (26th ed%) and they were highly efficient at it (1st arsr).

Wentz had a slower than average release (23rd ttt) on shorter than average passes (7.0 adot, 23rd 20+). He had good accuracy (6th cpoe) and his receivers provided higher than average yac (10th yac, 12th yacoe), which raised his ypa to 12th highest (7.2 yds).

On top of that, he didn’t have sack issues (20th sk%), so his net yardage efficiency was impressive (9th ny/d). No turnovers and a steady moving of the chains (1th 1st%) assisted with a decent TD rate (17th td%) and resulted in an 11th best epa efficiency (0.11 epa/d).

On the year, his epa efficiency places him 15th of all QBs, which is significantly higher than his net yardage efficiency (21st), conversion rate (24th), and passing success rate (20th), so I am wary of a regression in the final stretch.

GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.