FanPost

Colts 2021 Cap and Roster Thoughts


This is a follow up to my first post on this subject in early December. Now that the QB situation has clarity, and we are inside a month to the start of the new league year, it seems like a good time for an update.

Active Contracts

The Colts currently have 65 players under contract for 2021. Here they are, along with their cap hits from Over the Cap:

Pos Player Cap Number
QB Carson Wentz $ 25,400,000
IDL DeForest Buckner $ 17,000,000
C Ryan Kelly $ 14,650,000
IDL Grover Stewart $ 8,250,000
LG Quenton Nelson $ 7,771,018
RG Mark Glowinski $ 7,550,000
CB Kenny Moore $ 6,400,000
TE Jack Doyle $ 5,850,000
LB Darius Leonard $ 4,259,783
RT Braden Smith $ 3,260,943
RB Nyheim Hines $ 2,364,137
CB Rock Ya-Sin $ 2,159,033
P Rigoberto Sanchez $ 2,000,000
WR Michael Pittman, Jr. $ 1,957,464
RB Jonathan Taylor $ 1,779,353
Edge Kemoko Turay $ 1,660,401
Edge Ben Banogu $ 1,621,229
IDL Tyquan Lewis $ 1,389,199
WR Parris Campbell $ 1,302,528
FS Julian Blackmon $ 1,052,011
SS Khari Willis $ 1,042,009
LS Luke Rhodes $ 990,000
RB Jordan Wilkins $ 980,310
LB Bobby Okereke $ 977,779
QB Jacob Eason $ 963,066
LB Matthew Adams $ 945,396
LB Zaire Franklin $ 941,764
LB E.J. Speed $ 922,349
T Will Holden $ 920,000
RB Paul Perkins $ 920,000
TE Jordan Thomas $ 920,000
G Danny Pinter $ 867,174
CB Marvell Tell III $ 862,041
SS Ibraheim Campbell $ 850,000
G Jake Eldrenkamp $ 850,000
LB Skai Moore $ 850,000
WR J.J. Nelson $ 850,000
CB Isaiah Rodgers $ 816,281
LB Jordan Glasgow $ 812,353
WR Dezmon Patmon $ 812,353
PK Rodrigo Blankenship $ 786,666
CB Anthony Chesley $ 780,000
WR De'Michael Harris $ 780,000
WR Gary Jennings Jr. $ 780,000
C Sam Jones $ 780,000
S Rolan Milligan $ 780,000
CB Nick Nelson $ 780,000
S Roderic Teamer $ 780,000
TE Noah Togiai $ 780,000
RB Darius Anderson $ 660,000
T Jake Benzinger $ 660,000
CB Andre Chachere $ 660,000
IDL Kameron Cline $ 660,000
WR Quartney Davis $ 660,000
TE Farrod Green $ 660,000
RB Benny LeMay $ 660,000
QB Jalen Morton $ 660,000
T Elijah Nkansah $ 660,000
T Carter O'Donnell $ 660,000
P Austin Rehkow $ 660,000
CB Will Sunderland $ 660,000
T Casey Tucker $ 660,000
TE Andrew Vollert $ 660,000
IDL Chris Williams $ 660,000
IDL Robert Windsor $ 660,000
Total $ 153,356,640

Eliminations

For purposes of this post, I'm going to make some assumptions about a lot of these players who IMO will not be in strong contention to make the final roster.

  1. I'm going to eliminate the 16 $660K players. To be signed right now for $660K, a player must have been eligible for a previous NFL draft, but did not play enough in his career to date to earn an accrued season. Most such players have never taken a live snap. These are classic camp bodies and practice squad candidates.
  2. I'm going to eliminate the second year ($780K), third year ($850K), and fourth year ($920K) minimum salary players who have not played a snap for the Colts -- Paul Perkins, Jordan Thomas, J.J. Nelson, Anthony Chesley, Gary Jennings, Sam Jones, Nick Nelson, and Roderic Teamer.
  3. I'm going to eliminate Togiai. He played 72 snaps on offense and his PFF grade ranked #31 out of 32 graded players. He had 1 target last season and dropped it, and he did not distinguish himself as a run blocker. He played just 7 special teams snaps, likely because his PFF grade ranked #51 out of 55 graded Colts special teams players. Not seeing anything to like here.
  4. I'm going to keep De'Michael Harris for now. He had the worst PFF special teams grade on the team in 32 snaps, which is pretty bad for his outlook, since an end of roster player really needs to be able to make a positive contribution there. However, he played 83 snaps on offense, and PFF graded him behind only Hilton and Campbell among Colts WRs... ahead of Pittman, Pascal, and Johnson. Small sample size, but enough to stave off elimination for now. The Colts are also pretty thin at WR at the moment...
  5. I'm also going to keep Rolan Milligan for now. He opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID concern relating to perceived high risk involving his pregnant girlfried. In 2019, he played 131 snaps on defense and wasn't good, but he had PFF's second highest grade among 52 graded Colts special teams players in 164 snaps.

Obviously, I could miss on one or more of the 25 players I am eliminating here, but I think the odds of that are very low. The roster competition is going to be stiff given all of the team's available cap space and what that should mean in free agency.

Harris and Milligan are on my bubble for now and will each be battling for one of the last roster spots. Both of them are probably long shots to make it, as I think will become clearer by the end of this post.

Exclusive Rights Free Agent

ERFAs are players with fewer than three accrued seasons and an expired contract. If an ERFA's original team offers him a one-year contract at or above the league minimum based on his credited seasons, the player cannot negotiate with other teams.

The Colts have one ERFA, WR Ashton Dulin. Because he has two accrued seasons, a qualifying offer to keep him requires the league minimum salary for two accrued seasons -- $850K. (Note: 2021 minimum salaries are on page 2 of this CBA comparison.)

Dulin played the 5th highest number of special teams snaps for the Colts in 2020, and his PFF grade was 10th highest among 55 graded Colts special teams players. Like Harris and Milligan above, he certainly is not guaranteed a roster spot, but I'm going to count him at $850K for now.

Restricted Free Agents

The Colts have 5 RFAs, whom I have listed in my priority order to re-sign:

  1. TE Mo Alie-Cox
  2. WR Zach Pascal
  3. S George Odum
  4. CB Tremon Smith
  5. IDL Taylor Stallworth

Alie-Cox was a great player for the Colts last season, and I expect them to re-sign him.

  1. His PFF grade was 3rd highest on the Colts offense in 2020. Even better:
    1. His receiving grade was #2 on the team.
    2. His run blocking grade was #7 on the team.
    3. His pass blocking grade tied Nelson for #1 on the offense, though on just 20 pass blocking snaps.
  2. OTC valued his 2020 performance as being worth $5.317M. That is greater than the highest RFA tender -- the first round tender is projected as $4.766M.
  3. The only real question IMO is which tender the Colts give him.
    1. If they give him an original round tender, because he was undrafted, they would get no compensation for him if he signed an offer sheet with another team and the Colts declined to match. All a team would have to do is insert a poison pill, and he would be gone with nothing in return. So that's a non-starter.
    2. If they give him a second round tender, they would be projected to pay him $3.384M in 2021. If he signed an offer sheet with another team that the Colts decline to match, the Colts get that team's 2021 second round pick. I could see a team doing this. Atlanta traded a second round pick for Hayden Hurst last offseason, and I think MAC is better than Hurst.
    3. The question is whether or not the Colts prefer MAC or a mid to late second round pick. That pick would come with a four year rookie contract at second round prices, compared to $3.384M for MAC in 2021 followed by him walking as a UFA or signing a true market value contract -- in the 2022 offseason, when the cap will likely bounce from this year's reduced level to the highest level in league history -- in other words, a player friendly market. I think the team probably prefers to keep MAC, but the alternative scenario with a second round tender is also appealing, plus they can always match any offer sheet. So I'm going to assume they give him a second round tender rather than going almost $1.4M higher with a first round tender.

Pascal has been a good player for the Colts, and I expect them to re-sign him.

  1. If Campbell is healthy and finally fulfills some of his potential, and assuming the team brings in a #1/#2 caliber WR, whether by re-signing Hilton, signing another free agent, or via the draft, Pascal would stand to be the #4/#5 WR, and he is a very good player for that role. He is valuable depth, since he is capable of performing at a higher level in the pecking order if needed.
  2. OTC valued his 2020 performance as being worth $7.841M and Spotrac estimates his market value at $8.4M per year. But I don't think this is necessarily representative of his true market value as a RFA, especially in a depressed free agent market.
  3. As a former UDFA, the original round tender would offer no compensation to the Colts if he was signed to an offer sheet by another team. They could still risk that, figuring that no team would be so motivated to get Pascal as to insert a serious poison pill in an offer, meaning they could still match. But I doubt they would take this risk.
  4. They can guarantee his services or an additional second round pick with a second round tender. Given Campbell's health issues and the possibility of Hilton's departure, I'm going to assume they play it safe and go with a second round tender.

Odum is a great special teams player, and I expect the Colts to re-sign him.

  1. OTC valued his 2020 performance as being worth $3.998M...
  2. ...but his cap number was $754K last season. Even a jump to the original round tender amount of $2.133M does a lot to reduce the value he would stand to deliver for his cap hit.
  3. I think instead of tendering him, the team will seek to sign him to a two year contract outside of the tendering process. The minimum salary for a player with 3 accrued seasons is $920K. I'm going to assume the Colts give him a bit of incentive to stay and sign him to a 2 year, $3M contract with a $1.3M cap hit in 2021.

Smith played just 7 snaps on defense last season, but was a good special teams player. Tough call here.

  1. His PFF grade on special teams was the 8th best among the Colts special teams players in 146 snaps.
  2. OTC valued his 2020 performance as being worth just $849K. I can't see the team going the tender route with him.
  3. Having assumed Odum stays, I'm going to assume Smith does not make the final roster, whether because he is non-tendered and signs with another team or because the Colts sign him to a cheap contract and he doesn't earn a roster spot. If Odum doesn't stay, I'd be inclined to assume Smith stays on a minimum salary contract.

Stallworth played 262 snaps on defense last season, but he did not play well.

  1. He had the lowest PFF grade among the 18 Colts defensive players who played more than 100 snaps. He played 71 snaps on special teams, but was below average.
  2. OTC valued his 2020 performance as being worth $1.07M.
  3. Like Smith, I'm going to assume he does not make the final roster, whether because he is non-tendered and signs with another team or because the Colts sign him to a cheap contract and he doesn't earn a spot.

These decisions are tricky to evaluate, so I am less confident in my assumptions about these players. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I'm going to wait to address UFAs until evaluating the salary cap situation.

Draft Picks

Per OTC, the Colts are currently set to have these 2021 draft picks:

  1. 1.21 (21)
  2. 2.22 (54)
  3. 4.22 (127)
  4. 5.21 (166)
  5. 6.22 (207)
  6. 7.21 (247)

For purposes of this post:

  1. I assume the team will not make any trades involving draft picks and makes all of these picks. I realize that this is a shaky assumption, but I'm not prepared to make any alternative assumptions that would be useful to this post.
  2. I haven't followed the Colts long enough to know if all of their draft picks tend to make the roster, and have not researched it. I'm going to assume they all make it, barring injuries, which I cannot reasonably predict.
  3. Per OTC, those picks have an estimated total cap hit of $5,616,981.

Practice Squad and Injury Replacements

Next, I will account for the practice squad:

  1. The current practice squad rules for 2021 allow teams to have 12 practice squad players. In 2020, the NFL increased that to 16 due to COVID, but I will assume that 2021 stays at 12.
  2. Depending on how many accrued seasons a PS player has, he earns either $9,200 or $14K per week. I'm going to assume the Colts have a full practice squad of players without enough accrued games/seasons to qualify for the higher salary (i.e., all at $9,200 per week).
  3. However, the new CBA allows 2 PS players to be activated every week, and those players get paid at NFL minimum salary level. I will conservatively assume the Colts activate 2 players for all 16 games. That means effectively 2 of the 12 PS player slots will cost $630,376 each (16/17ths of NFL 2021 minimum salary of $660K plus $9,200 for the bye week).
  4. Accounting for all of that results in a total cost of $2,824,753 for the practice squad.

The team will need to reserve some cap space for 2021 in season injury replacements. I can't see that being less than $2M, and IMO it is more likely to be higher. I will be more conservative and assume they reserve $3M.

Revised Roster

Given all of the assumptions above, so far I have accounted for 44 players, not including the draft picks. Here they are with their actual/projected 2021 cap hits (my assumptions above identified with *):

Pos Player Cap Number
QB Carson Wentz $ 25,400,000
IDL DeForest Buckner $ 17,000,000
C Ryan Kelly $ 14,650,000
IDL Grover Stewart $ 8,250,000
LG Quenton Nelson $ 7,771,018
RG Mark Glowinski $ 7,550,000
CB Kenny Moore $ 6,400,000
TE Jack Doyle $ 5,850,000
LB Darius Leonard $ 4,259,783
TE Mo Alie-Cox $ 3,384,000 *
WR Zach Pascal $ 3,384,000 *
RT Braden Smith $ 3,260,943
RB Nyheim Hines $ 2,364,137
CB Rock Ya-Sin $ 2,159,033
P Rigoberto Sanchez $ 2,000,000
WR Michael Pittman, Jr. $ 1,957,464
RB Jonathan Taylor $ 1,779,353
Edge Kemoko Turay $ 1,660,401
Edge Ben Banogu $ 1,621,229
IDL Tyquan Lewis $ 1,389,199
WR Parris Campbell $ 1,302,528
S George Odum $ 1,300,000 *
FS Julian Blackmon $ 1,052,011
SS Khari Willis $ 1,042,009
LS Luke Rhodes $ 990,000
RB Jordan Wilkins $ 980,310
LB Bobby Okereke $ 977,779
QB Jacob Eason $ 963,066
LB Matthew Adams $ 945,396
LB Zaire Franklin $ 941,764
LB E.J. Speed $ 922,349
T Will Holden $ 920,000
G Danny Pinter $ 867,174
CB Marvell Tell III $ 862,041
SS Ibraheim Campbell $ 850,000
WR Ashton Dulin $ 850,000 *
G Jake Eldrenkamp $ 850,000
LB Skai Moore $ 850,000
CB Isaiah Rodgers $ 816,281
LB Jordan Glasgow $ 812,353
WR Dezmon Patmon $ 812,353
PK Rodrigo Blankenship $ 786,666
WR De'Michael Harris $ 780,000
S Rolan Milligan $ 780,000
Total $ 144,344,640

Now, taking everything above into account, I can determine an estimate of the team's functionally available cap space.

Functional Salary Cap Space

  1. First, note that the 2021 salary cap floor has been set at $180M, but it could be as high as $185M. OTC is using $180.5M until the league makes an official decision, so that's what I will use here.
  2. OTC credited the Colts with a rollover of $7,489,022 from 2020, making their franchise 2021 cap $187,989,022.
  3. As noted above, the 44 players under contract that I am counting toward the 2021 roster have a combined cap hit of $144,344,640; the team's draft picks have a combined cap hit of $5,616,981; the practice squad will have an estimated cap hit of $2,824,753; and I estimate the team will reserve $3M for 2021 in season injury replacements. OTC also shows the team carrying $237,143 in 2021 dead money.
  4. Do the math, and that leaves $31,965,505 in available 2021 cap space, with 50 roster spots currently occupied.

This provides a starting point to further discuss roster and free agent decisions.

Having ~$32M in available cap space and 50 roster spots accounted for, though certainly not allocated optimally and including at least a few bubble players, puts the Colts in a great position to enter free agency.

Cap Casualties

Will the Colts have any cap casualties? This article says no: PFF Predicts the Colts to Have Zero ‘Salary Cap Casualties’ this Offseason. I generally agree with the article, but I think Doyle remains a possibility, if the Colts add a high profile TE.

They have been linked to Zach Ertz. It is somewhat interesting that Ertz was not bundled into the Wentz trade, which makes me more skeptical that the Colts will trade for him. However, he could still ultimately be released by the Eagles as a cap casualty, if he isn't traded, since the Eagles have a lot to do to fix their 2021 cap and already have Dallas Goedert at TE. A team trading for Ertz would not inherit any of his remaining pro-rated bonuses, so he would count $8.25M against that team's cap in 2021, then he would be a UFA. next offseason That is a low risk contract situation, but he has a non-trivial injury history, so I'm not sure any team would give up much for him.

Ultimately, if Ertz is released, it would not be at all surprising if he is interested in reuniting with Wentz and Reich. Ertz is reportedly close friends with Wentz, and Reich is one of the reasons the Colts were linked to Ertz earlier in the offseason.

If he is released by the Eagles, I could definitely see the Colts signing him. In that case, it arguably makes more sense to release Doyle and re-sign Burton, since Doyle is more expensive. While Doyle has been a good blocking TE for the team, and that is an area of weakness for Ertz, MAC is a very good blocker, and Burton was surprisingly good at it last season.

I'm going to assume that Ertz is released by the Eagles and signed by the Colts, and Doyle is released. I anticipate Ertz will have a cap number of $9M in 2021. Releasing Doyle will save the Colts $4.35M against the 2021 cap, almost half of the cap number I'm assuming for Ertz.

Applying these assumptions, the team has approximately $27.3M remaining.

Restructuring/Extensions

I think the team will give Leonard and Braden Smith multi-year extensions this offesason. I think they will also pick up the 5th year option on Nelson, which means they won't extend him until next offseason.

Spotrac projects Leonard getting a 5 year, $85M contract extension. They used Wagner and Mosley as comps, which seems fair enough. The question for the 2021 cap is about contract terms. If he gets a signing bonus of, say, $15M, as Wagner did, that gets amortized at $3M per year over 2021-2025. I expect the team would convert part of his current 2021 salary into that bonus, but it will still likely raise his 2021 cap number a bit. I will assume +$2M against the 2021 cap.

Smith is only set to make about $3.3M in 2021, which is currently just #23 among RTs. I assume he will sign a 4 year contract extension, and, like Leonard, I assume it will increase his 2021 cap hit. For Smith, I'll assume +$2M, just like Leonard.

These figures could be too low, but, applying these assumptions, the team has approximately $23.3M remaining.

Internal Unrestricted Free Agents

Per Spotrac, the Colts have 16 UFAs, not including Rivers, since he retired.

First off, I will eliminate these players as no longer needed or not being good enough to retain:

  1. C Joey Hunt - Hunt only played 10 snaps for the Colts last season, but he has not been a good NFL center. He has had one season with significant snaps (2019), in which his PFF grade (52.2) ranked #138 out of 173 graded C/G players. He gave up 18 pressures and 3 penalties in 733 snaps that season. I expect the team can find better backup IOL.
  2. T Le'Raven Clark - His PFF grade was 3rd lowest on the Colts offense, and he played a decent sample size of 148 snaps. I expect the team can find better backup OTs.
  3. T Chaz Green - Green was third string behind Clark... and he was unimpressive enough in his limited play last season that the team brought Jared Veldheer out of retirement to start week 17 and the playoff game last season rather than starting Green. I think the Colts will draft a left tackle with their first round pick and sign a veteran free agent tackle to possibly compete to start at left tackle but more likely bolster the team's depth. Heck, I'd rather they re-sign Veldheer than keep Green.
  4. S Tavon Wilson - Wilson wasn't very good for the Colts in 2020. He was a very good tackler but was terrible in coverage, giving up a perfect 158.3 NFL passer rating when targeted. He is about to turn 31, and I expect the Colts will have no trouble finding a better player to back up Willis and Blackmon.
  5. P Ryan Allen - Assuming Sanchez is healthy, he has this position locked up.

Next, there is another group I will eliminate -- the guys I expect to want and be able to get more money than the Colts are willing to pay:

  1. QB Jacoby Brissett
    1. Brissett isn't likely to make anything close to the money he made over the past 2 years from the Colts. The highest paid backup QB in the league at the moment is Mariota at $8.8M (average contract value). But the 5th highest paid backup, Driskell is averaging just $2.5M, so it drops off pretty quickly.
    2. Even assuming the Colts carry 3 active QBs, given Ballard's comments that Eason might not even be ready to be the backup yet, IMO they should be looking to pay $5M or less for any QB they sign to join Wentz and Eason. I expect Brissett will be able to find more elsewhere.
    3. It even seems possible the team would be willing to go with just Wentz and Eason without a 3rd QB on the active roster, just to avoid any appearance of a QB controversy if Wentz doesn't play well early... though the team would need to have confidence in Eason's ability to start a couple of games given Wentz's injury history.
  2. RB Marlon Mack - The Colts simply don't need him. Their running game turned out fine without him last season, and their top 3 RBs should be set (Taylor, Hines, Wilkins). It doesn't make sense to pay him more than he will get elsewhere.
  3. WR T.Y. Hilton - I like Hilton, and he came on to play pretty well in the second half of the season last year. I just don't think he is worth what he will likely get -- Spotrac assesses his value as $10.1M per year, but OTC valued his 2020 performance at $7.534M, and now he is a year older and the team may be concerned about his legs going forward. I would change my mind if he was willing to play for $8M or less, but I don't expect that, since he hasn't played for that low a figure since 2015.
  4. S Malik Hooker - I think the Colts made it clear by not picking up Hooker's 5th year option last offseason that he still needed to prove something in 2020 to earn a second contract from the team. That is understandable, since he had a lengthy list of injuries from 2017-2019: torn hip labrum (2017), groin hernia (2017), torn MCL and ACL (2017), hip strain (2018), pedal foot injury (2019), and torn meniscus (2019). Then he had a bad game in week 1 of 2020 and tore his Achilles in week 2 and missed the rest of the season. So whatever they wanted to see, he didn't provide it, and he was only able to play in 37 of a possible 67 Colts games in his 4 years with the team. With young safeties Willis and Blackmon already on the roster, Hooker will be moving on.
  5. LB Anthony Walker - Walker played poorly in 2020. PFF graded 120 LBs who played at least 100 snaps in 2020, and Walker's overall grade ranked tied for #95. Despite that, OTC valued his 2020 performance at $4.767M, which suggests he would represent a cap hit of at least $4M+ in 2021 if the team re-signs him. He was quoted after the season as saying he wants more playing time in 2021 and beyond, and I don't see how the Colts can provide that, barring injury to Okereke or Leonard. Between that and my expectation for the salary he can find elsewhere, I don't see him returning.

I think there are three players that are easy decisions to re-sign:

  1. CB Xavier Rhodes - I think re-signing Rhodes is pretty important. The rest of the team's outside corners are generally unproven, so missing on Rhodes would create a difficult hole to fill, especially if the team's early draft picks need to go to OL and pass rush. Spotrac estimates Rhodes' next contract as 2 years, $16M. Even though he is about to turn 31, I think that is an easy call, and I'm going to assume he signs that contract with the Colts, with a cap hit of $6M in 2021.
  2. CB Travis Carrie - Carrie played well last season as a depth corner and got 3 starts on defense, including the playoff game. He also played well on special teams -- his PFF grade on special teams was 9th highest among Colts special teams players in 251 snaps. His 2020 cap number was $887.5K, but OTC valued his 2020 performance at $3.677M. He signed a 4 year, $31M contract with the Browns in 2018 and didn't play up to it in 2019, leading to his release after the 2019 season and one year stint with the Colts in 2020. Carrie turns 31 this summer, but I could see the team signing him to a 2 year, team friendly contract. I'm going to assume he is back on a 2 year contract, with a 2021 cap hit of $2M. This might be too low.
  3. TE Trey Burton - Like Carrie, Burton signed a major contract in 2018 and didn't live up to it, leading to a one year deal with the Colts in 2020. His 2020 cap number was ~$838K, but OTC valued his 2020 performance at $3.692M. Burton's PFF grade was 14th best on the Colts offense in 2020, and his special teams grade was somewhat surprisingly also 14th best on the Colts, though on just 41 snaps. I already mentioned that I expect the team to re-sign MAC, which lines up Burton to be the team's third TE, and he is well-suited to that role. I suspect he can make more money than he made in 2020 in the free agent market this offseason, so the Colts will probably have to give him a raise to stay. I'm going to assume he is back on a 1 year, $2M contract... but this might be too low.

Applying those assumptions, the team has $13.3M in remaining 2021 cap space. I have now accounted for 53 roster spots, but I have not yet addressed the team's 3 UFA edge players, or any external free agents other than Ertz. So every additional signing from here will push another player off the roster, providing at least a small salary offset.

These are the team's remaining internal free agents:

  1. Edge Denico Autry
  2. Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad
  3. Edge Justin Houston

I'm really not sure what to assume about these guys. The team needs to improve its pass rush, which suggests that they may be better off signing other players rather than bringing these guys back. On the other hand, the expected depressed free agent market could enable the team to sign one or more of these players at a team friendly price.

Roster Check

Before making any additional assumptions, I want to take a look at the roster I've established at this point. Here are the 47 veterans broken down by positions:

Offense (21)

  • QB (2) - Wentz, Eason
  • RB (3) - Taylor, Hines, Wilkins
  • FB (0) -
  • WR (6) - Pittman, Campbell, Pascal, Dulin, Patmon, Harris
  • TE (3) - Ertz, Alie-Cox, Burton
  • OL (7) - LG Nelson, C Kelly, RG Glowinski, RT Smith, T Holden, G Pinter, G Eldrenkamp

Defense (23)

  • IDL (3) - Buckner, Stewart, Lewis
  • Edge (2) - Turay, Banogu
  • LB (7) - Leonard, Okereke, Adams, Franklin, Speed, Moore, Glasgow
  • CB (6) - Rhodes, Ya-Sin, Moore, Carrie, Tell, Rodgers
  • S (5) - SS Willis, FS Blackmon, Campbell, Milligan, Odum

Special Teams (3)

  • PK - Blankenship
  • P - Sanchez
  • LS - Rhodes

Assessment:

  1. I'm missing a starting LT, two starting Edge players, and a starting LB.
  2. The depth on both lines is weak in quality and insufficient in quantity.
  3. The WR group is weak at the top and bottom, with no clear #1.
  4. Looks like the bottom of the WR and LB groups are where the likely cuts will come from to address the problems above.

That is a lot of problems to fix with 6 draft picks and ~$13M in cap space.

Next Steps

  1. I expect the Colts to take a LT with their first round pick, moving him right into the starting lineup. This makes sense, because the Colts already paid Kelly, I'm assuming they are about to pay Smith, and they will be paying Nelson next offseason. It would be difficult to give 4 guys on the OL top 10-ish contracts at their positions at the same time.
  2. I expect the Colts to take a pass rusher with their second round pick, but that clearly won't be enough to address the pass rush. They will have to sign at least one starting-caliber free agent, maybe two, whether from their own internal free agents or from the market. This alone stands to eat up most of their remaining cap space. I'm guessing they might try to re-sign Houston and Autry in addition to using the seond rounder here.
  3. I expect a couple of team friendly signings for depth on both lines, as well as a draft pick or two invested here.
  4. I expect a WR in the draft, because I just don't see how they can devote the cap space to a free agent, especially a big name free agent. Unfortunately, that implies a 4th round pick or later, based on my other assumptions, so this would likely leave Pittman as the de facto #1. Hopefully, he is up for the challenge.

Conclusion

Well, I made a ton of assumptions here, so many of them will likely prove to be incorrect. And I may have made a couple errors as I assembled this over the past week or so. Please point those out.

I think this post shows that, even though the Colts are in better cap shape than many teams, they are going to be very seriously challenged to address all of their needs and problem areas this offseason. The NFL salary cap creates a zero sum game situation that often gets glossed over in the offseason as fans think about all of the guys they want to bring back (e.g., Hilton, Mack, Houston) and all of the guys from other teams they want to sign (e.g., Watt, Godwin).

Thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.