FanPost

Oline and cap space looking forward


The Colts have done a fantastic job of rebuilding the Oline from the garbage that they were given by Grigson. The result of this building is one of the best Olines in the entire NFL. The Colts are thankful to have 2 rookies on our Oline that helps keep the price down, however, those contracts are expiring along with other contracts and now the Colts are faced with a potentially expense Oline following this year. I will be breaking down the contracts and potential contracts for our Oline and whether or not some players are worth the money or if the Colts should invest so much cap space into the Oline.

Under contract after 2021

Quenton Nelson: $13,754,000

Ryan Kelly: $7,500,000

The Colts have 2 members of their Oline under contract for 2022. Kelly is under contract till 2024 and Nelson would be on the final year of his rookie deal. Those 2 players combine for $21,254,000 cap hit. I'm going to use 203 million as the estimated cap space for 2022. The Colts will probably have around 6.4 million in carry over which would make the Colts total available cap at around 209.4 million. That means around 10% of the Colts total cap space is tied up between 2 players on the Oline.

Colts FAs

Braden Smith: I expect the Colts to resign Smith. He has been great at RT and should definitely spend most of his career here as a Colt. Lane Johnson is the highest paid RT in the league with a contract that averages $18 million a year. The next closest would be Jack Conklin at $14 million a year. I expect Smith's contract to land somewhere in-between these two contracts. I'm hoping the Colts can get Smith on a more team friendly deal averaging around $15-16 million instead of more on the Johnson value kind of contract. We'll go with a $16 million a year average for Smith. Looking at how Ballard has structured previous contracts I expect Smith to have a higher cap hit than his yearly average. So in 2022 I would guess he would have a cap hit around $18.5 million. This would put the Colts at around $39,754,000 million spent on the Oline or around 19% of the Colts total cap.

Mark Glowinski: Glowinski has been the weakest part of the Colts Oline since he signed his contract with the Colts. even though he has been the weakest link he has been a solid starter for the Colts. He will be 30 during the 2022 season so he is starting to get older. Looking at other contracts signed by guards at a similar age Glowinski will probably be worth between $8-10 million. Gabe Jackson's contract averages $7.5 million a year and so does Kevin Zeitler's contract. I expect Glowinski to make more than this because of increase in cap and he's played on the Colts Oline. I don't think the Colts will bring Glowinski back at that price, especially considering his current contract averages $5.4 million a year. It is possible that he takes a team friendly deal but I expect him to sign somewhere else and net the Colts a nice comp. pick. The Colts could look to promote from within as they have Pinter under contract. The Colts also have the option of filling the hole via the draft or FA. If he is resigned he will probably have a cap hit around $9 million. Which would put the Oline investment to $48,754,000 or around 23% of our cap. If the Colts roll with Pinter it would be $40,754,000 or 19.5% of the Colts cap.

Eric Fisher: If Fisher is able to come back healthy form his achilles injury and regain his probowl form he will fetch a pretty price in FA. Spotrac has his expected average contract at $18.5 million. That's a hefty price but that's the price a premium LT goes for. The decision to resign Fisher will be one of the hardest of next off-season. I expect the Colts to either resign Fisher or look towards the draft to find a replacement. There are a decent number of tackles that could go in the first or second round next draft (at least at this point). Resigning Fisher would probably have a 2022 cap hit of around $20 million. Resigning our entire Oline (starters) would have a cap hit of around $69 million (nice!) or about 33% of the Colts cap space. If Glowinski isn't resigned and the Colts resign Fisher the Colts will spend about $61 million on the Oline or 29% of the Colts cap space.

My prediction

I expect the Colts to resign Smith for sure. I don't expect the Colts to resign Glowinski. I expect the Colts to attempt to resign Fisher but he ultimately walks for more money. Depending on what happens with Wentz the Colts will either be without a 1st or 2nd round pick. I expect the conditional 2nd to be a 1st. This means if the Colts don't resign Fisher and want to find an answer in the draft it will have to be in the 2nd or a trade up.

In an ideal situation the Colts resign Smith, let Pinter replace Glowinski and draft a rookie LT in the 2nd round. This scenario would allow the Colts to still have a top Oline with having to spend over 1/3 over their cap space on the Oline. This would allow the Colts to resign other key pieces such as Leonard and Nelson.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.