Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season.
NOTE: references to ranks are of 30 QBs
Overall, an improvement.
The 4th down sack and the interception in the red zone, were 2 big negative epa plays and so Wentz’s epa efficiency is 10 points lower than last week ( -0.03 23rd). However, his success rate was about average, so basically his bad plays were worse than his best plays were good. . . wait . . . yeah, that’s right.
Even though his epa numbers dropped this week, his first down conversion rate and yardage efficiency were better, which is encouraging, I guess.
As the game went on, yards per attempt dropped, but it was never bad. 8.0 ypa is above average (15th).
The distance on both attempts (7.5 yds) and completions (6.1 yds) was closer to league average.
Russell Wilson throws TDs from very far away.
Pittman was the #1 receiver and Doyle was #2. That is true for week #2 and for the season.
Wide receivers need to be in the upper right quadrants here. Only Pittman is following the rules, but Pascal is close.
A 64.5% completion is lower than last week, but the passes were longer and so accuracy was actually a bit better ( cpoe -3.0%). . . . still not good, but better.
My guess is that time to throw is something that Colts’ fans are going to argue about this year. For whatever reasons, Rivers threw quick, Wentz does not.
Wentz logged a 2.90 second TTT (7th), almost exactly the same as last week. Of course, he threw longer passes, so in a way that is quicker . . . sort of.
Long TTT and pressure go hand in hand and this week was no exception. Clearly the O-Line is a huge part of that, but until our QB can consistently get rid of the ball quicker, get used to lots of sacks and scrambles.
Receiver YAC numbers are better than average for the 2nd week in a row (11th yac, +0.8 yac over expected), which helped lift yardage efficiency (15th ypa), even though Wentz was below average in accuracy (21st cpoe ).
Wentz was sacked or scrambled on 8 drop-backs, feeling even more pressure as a % of drop-backs than week 1, but it did not dramatically sink his net yards per drop-back (17th). His 7th ranked TTT can be partially to blame for the pressure, but he also threw it farther this week (16th adot, 13th ay/c), so he was finding receivers easier this week.
His yardage efficiency helped his 14th rank first down conversion rate. The interception was fluky and the play call was questionable, so I’m not too concerned about that happening again. There was an opportunity to throw for more TDs, but due to play-calling and execution, it didn’t happen so TD rate was low. These factors combined to pull down his epa efficiency (23rd) lower than his yardage efficiency.
Here is his year to date dashboard (of 32 QBs):
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.