Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season.
NOTE: references to weekly ranks are of the 30 team QBs through Sunday night
When people describe Wentz, I keep hearing words like “tough”, “strong arm”, “mobile”. You know that is not an alternate way of saying “good”, right?
Less than 1 of 3 Wentz dropbacks were successful and his 32.5% Passing Success Rate was the worst of any week 3 QB. His -0.19 epa per dropback was 27th.
Everything was worse . . . much, much worse.
His yards per attempt never even sniffed the acceptable range.
Through 3 weeks, he is 21st in ypa, driven by the 28th shortest passes. Bad combo.
Air depth on both attempts and (5.4 yds) and completions (4.2 yds) dropped back to the “I can only check-down” range.
Does it even matter?
For the next image, notice the utter absence of blue dots in the upper right quadrant of the chart on the left? That’s where Colts receivers who added greater than average value on longer than average passes would have been . . . you know . . . had there been any.
51.4%. That’s a completion rate not a presidential approval rating. A -13.3% cpoe suggests an average QB . . . average . . . would have completed 64.7% of those attempts. I’m not great at math but that seems below average. No, wait, I am great at math.
And now we come to everyone’s favorite stat to harp on this year.
For those claiming that Wentz’s previous time to throw numbers were upwards biased because he was running for his life, then here is some proof. He clearly could not run for his life this week and his TTT dropped to 2.7 (about league average).
For the 5th shortest attempts, that’s still too slow. He is gun-shy, which combined with very short passes is quite Brissettish.
Short attempts (26th adot) with slightly less than expected yac and league worst accuracy (30th cpoe) combine for the 4th shortest yards per attempt. Add on top of that, a basically average sack rate and no scrambles and you get the 26th ranked net yardage efficiency (ny/d).
There were no turnovers on drop-backs, but there were also no TDs and the 2nd lowest first down conversion rate, so with poor yardage efficiency, that makes the epa efficiency bad (27th).
Here is his year to date dashboard (of 32 QBs). People can argue all they want about how good he may have played in an alternate universe with a better surrounding cast, but the fact is that his numbers have been horrible. They were horrible last year and they aren’t much better so far this year.
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.
pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks
ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks
rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.