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Betting Against the Spread Week 4

Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

I wanted to be the bringer of the good word and start every post about gambling with a stern warning against it, but then I read the research regarding warnings and realize warning against the dangers of gambling addiction are largely fruitless. Consider this your warning. Don’t gamble.

We are off to a hot start and while I am by no means saying bet how we bet, we are currently 10-4 through the first three weeks of the 2021 NFL season betting against the spread. Last year, we focused on picking winners, noted that professionals are right about 60% of the time picking winners, so for us to be hitting 70%+ against the spread is really good, actually.

In Week 1, we were 4-1.

In Week 2, we were 3-2 and one play from 4-1.

In Week 3, we were 3-1 (and even called the Colts getting thrashed as a possibility!).

To say I’m feeling myself is a bit of an understatement.

I will be wrong horrifically eventually, so let me say this week’s lines almost didn’t give me enough games to bet on, but we got there.

I wouldn’t touch the Thursday Night game with a 10-foot pole. I think the Bengals win at home, though. I’d only bet them straight up to win. I don’t think they’ll win by 8 or more but I’m not turning in a bet slip with Jacksonville’s name on it.

On Sunday, I absolutely would take the Bills -17 at home over the Texans. This is gonna be an ugly game. I’m calling a blowout home victory.

I also like the Panthers +4.5 on the road against the Cowboys. I think this is a field goal game.

If the Colts +2 are going to get off the schneid, this week on the road against the Dolphins is it. I’m calling this a winnable road game.

I think the Ravens +1 are a great road underdog bet against the Broncos. I’m calling this a winnable road game.

Lastly, I like Arizona +5 on the road against the Rams. I think this is a field goal game.

I plugged these picks into a parlay on BetMGM. $100 wins us almost $2,600+. That’s why I like betting ATS + parlays. If you’re so sure about a single outcome, why not multiple?

Either way you go, enjoy the games this weekend and don’t quit your day job. I know I’m not.

If you’ve been around long enough, you’ll realize that Afternoon Pancakes is no more and here is the latest episode of my solo podcast called The Coltist. Please subscribe to my YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter! My personal Twitter handle is LikelyAlien. My podcast’s Twitter handle is TheColtist.