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Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by attempts through current week.
DASHBOARD
Here is what Derek Carr has looked like on the season.
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He has faced harder than average passing defenses (11th opd) on a pass-first team (7th ed%). Their run game as been bad (26th arsr).
Carr doesn’t hold the ball a long time (15th ttt), which helps manage opponent pressure (17th pr%) and he still gets good passing depth (9th adot). He attempts a decent amount of long passes (7th 20+) and is very successful when doing so (10th 20+e).
His 6.0 yards per completion is just a bit above average (12th ay/c) and his receivers also provide above average yac (11th). Add good accuracy to that (12th cpoe) and you get the 5th best yards per attempt (7.8 ypa).
His sack rate is in line with the pressure he sees (17th sk%, 17nd pr%), but he does not scramble or throw the ball away often ( 22nd scr%, 20th ta%). This drops his overall yardage efficiency a bit to 8th (6.9 ny/d).
His problem is that he can’t translate that good yardage into first downs (18th 1st%) or TDs (26th td%). He also has a tendency to turn the ball over (11th to%). Notice that like Kyler Murray, Carr is bad in the red-zone (25th rze).
All of that drives a 15th ranked efficiency (0.11 epa/d) with a similar passing success rate (15th psr).
HOW WELL?
Carr’s efficiency is about average overall, but it has been trending down.
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HOW FAR?
His passing and completion depth has also been trending down.
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His 5th best ypa comes off of the 10th longest passes per completion.
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TO WHO?
He uses Hunter Renfow as a security blanket. Darren Waller comes in #2 in targets and yards even though he has missed 5 games.
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Carr doesn’t throw a lot of TDs, but he can find the end-zone from far away.
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HOW ACCURATE?
He has been one of the more accurate QBs this year.
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HOW FAST?
He has an almost league average time to throw, which is actually just a bit quicker than expected given his depth of target, so he has no problem seeing receivers.
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TO WHERE?
He has deep ball skills, but the rest of it is just meh.
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GLOSSARY
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.
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